Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Closing Markets: Corn -1.75 old & -0.25 new.
Beans -7.25 old & -2 new. Wheat -0.25.

Market Recap:

Good afternoon! Ag markets saw quiet/mixed price action again for the most part on Wednesday, though a late-session sell-off in old crop beans dropped July futures to losses of more than 7 cents on the day. It appears there is some sort of agreement between the US and China on trade, but the market remains mostly uninterested as details have continued to be mostly scarce and there doesn't seem to be any chatter on specific purchases of US ag products, which is a desired outcome of the US farmer. This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA showed a new all-time daily production record in the week ending June 6th of 1.120 mil bbls/day, which topped the previous record of 1.119 mil bbls/day set last November; the figure was up 1.4% from last week and up 4.5% from the same week last year. Traders see Thursday's June WASDE report showing old crop ending stocks at 1.392 bil bu vs 1.415 bil in May, while new crop ending stocks are seen at 1.792 bil bu vs 1.800 bil in May. At the world level, stocks are seen slightly higher from last month at 278.8 MMT's on a possible upward adjustment of nearly 2 MMT's in Brazil. Quiet day in the corn market on Wednesday, as new crop futures traded just a 5-cent range on a continued good weather forecast and not a lot new on the demand front. Brazil corn into Spain through the summer continues to be well cheaper than that of the US, which should further limit exports once the harvest picks up speed over the next few weeks. Tomorrow's reports from both the USDA and Conab will offer the next headlines to the space, with the big corn-specific questions being Brazil's crop size and whether are any notable adjustments to old crop demand. Talk surrounding China continued to dominate the soybean market again on Wednesday, as traders were largely disappointed that a rumored framework agreement did not include any mention of fulfillment of the Phase One trade deal or any new purchases of US ag products, namely soybeans. Like corn, there aren't a lot of surprises expected out of either Conab or the USDA tomorrow, but the reports will at the very least likely take some of the headline attention off the trade situation for a bit. Also, a relatively quiet day in the wheat market, as traders positioned for a bearish report tomorrow on the idea that production estimates for the winter crop would likely be adjusted higher for the 11 straight year in the June report, and on improving weather forecasts across the growing regions of both Canada and Russia. Harvest has just started to get rolling in the US southwest, with their not enough data available currently to gather any sort of insight. Livestock markets again closed mixed on Wednesday, with cattle markets higher and the hog market finishing the day in the red. Outside markets were mostly mixed/lower on Wednesday, led by the $ index, as monthly inflation data this morning showed a slightly smaller increase than was expected from April of just 0.1%; this brought annual inflation to 2.4%, which was up from last month's 2.3% but also still better than expected. Not a lot new this afternoon on the short-term weather forecast for the rest of the week, as there continues to be decent model agreement on two separate storm systems in the north and the south providing rainfall to these areas, while the central Midwest stays short-changed through the end of the week. Temperatures look to continue warming across the Midwest and eastern US through the end of this week and into the weekend, though the west appears to stay noticeably warmer than the east. 10-day precip forecasts for both China and Canada are noticeably wetter in the past couple days than those prior, and are also trending cooler, which should be crop-positive in these areas. Week two forecasts have trended towards spottier precip anomalies in the eastern US overnight, though they still generally show above average moisture conditions into the back third of the month. Also, little new of note in the extended temperature forecast, as models remain in good agreement on increasing warmth into the end of the month following another several days of cooler weather in the eastern US to end this week.

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Enjoy the night!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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