Friday, May 23, 2025
Closing Markets: Corn -3.50 old & -2.50 new.
Beans -7.25 old & -4.75 new. Wheat -2.
All Topflight locations will be CLOSED MONDAY, May 26th in observance of Memorial Day
Market Recap:
Good afternoon! Happy Friday. Ag markets saw low-volume selling pressure to wrap up the week this week, as the looming three-day Memorial Day holiday weekend caused traders to lose interest beyond mid-morning. Early morning tariff headlines from President Trump on Truth Social caused a brief bit of excitement to start the day, but there was little/no follow through on the matter, which left values quiet into and through the noon hour.
CN ended the week at 4.59 and 1/2, down 3 and 1/2 cents. CZ was down 2 and 1/2 at 4.50 and 3/4. SN closed at 10.60 and 1/4, down 7 and 1/4. SX finished at 10.50 and 1/2, down 4 and 3/4. WN was down 2 cents at 5.42 and 1/2. Products closed mixed, July soybean ended at 296.20, down $2.30/ton, and July soybean oil closed at 49.35, up 24 points. Inside day for meal and bean oil notably closed all its chart gaps from the week. Cattle markets ended the week quietly higher, with June fats closing at 215.80, up 17 cents, and August feeders closing at 300.37, up 60 cents. Small ranging daily trade in the cattle markets for the most part this week. June hogs closed at 98.30, down 40 cents. Outside markets are trading mixed to end the week, with crude oil futures up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index down 200 points, and the US$ index down 80-90 points; the S&P500 is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 160 points. Outside day higher for crude oil futures.
Spreads ended the week lower, corn spreads were down a quarter cent to down a penny and a half, and soybean spreads were down 3/4 of a cent to down 2 and 1/2 cents. CN/CU closed at 21 and 3/4, down 1/4 of a cent, and SN/SQ closed at 4 and 1/4, down 3/4 of a cent.
For the week: July corn was up 16 cents; December corn was up 15 and 1/4 cents; July soybeans were up 10 and 1/4 cents; November soybeans were up 5 cents; July Chicago wheat was up 17 and 1/2 cents; July soybean meal was up $4.30/ton; and July soybean oil was up 0.42 cents/lb.
Tariffs made their way back into the news rotation on Friday, as President Trump shortly before 7am central time put out a series of posts on his Truth Social platform outlining threats to the European Union that he would implement a new 50% tariff on their exports to the US starting June 1 due to the fact that talks to this point had not made any progress. In a separate post, Trump also threatened a new 25% tariff on purchases of Apple iPhones not made in the US, which seems to be his latest maneuver to try and get companies to bring their manufacturing back to the US. Both the European Commission and spokespeople for Apple declined to comment on either situation on Friday, with it unclear at this point what Europe's response would be to the new trade duties. USTR Jameson Greer was scheduled to talk with EU's trade chief earlier today, but there are no details of this meeting/conversation available at the time of this writing.
Staying on the topic of trade/tariffs, news outlets were also reporting on Friday that Treasury Secretary Bessent would be traveling to China for in-person trade negotiations in the coming weeks, which would seem to signal that progress is being made on that front despite a lack of headlines recently. According to sources familiar, the meetings are expected to address issues related to market access, intellectual property protections, and dispute resolutions; we are not entirely sure what 'dispute resolutions' defines. Bessent further mentioned on Friday that he still expected several other large US trade deals to be announced in the coming weeks, though here too little additional detail or insight was given.
The other nonweather related headline maker to end the week was in the biofuel world, with ongoing rhetoric surrounding 45Z/RVO/SRE's beginning to cause confusion for the masses. We mentioned this briefly this morning, but it is to our understanding that yesterday afternoon, a rumor was leaked that the EPA would be mass-awarding small refinery exemptions that had been backlogged to 2016, which would've been bearish domestic feedstocks (i.e., soybean oil). The EPA then denied these rumors, saying no resolution to the situation had been agreed to yet, which the market then took as a positive even though nothing had really changed from the market closed at 1:20pm yesterday to when it opened back at 7pm yesterday evening. This further illustrates our point that a lot of the recent price action in this market has likely been computer/algo related, which warrants caution. Furthermore, there were additional rumors later in the day today that the RVO requirement for 2026/2027 would be released over the weekend, but amid all the SRE chatter, it is impossible to know which of these two situations will take the lead in terms of market importance.
Otherwise, three-day weekends in the summer months produce enhanced forecast risk, and the next three days will be no different. The risk level won't necessarily be overly high as far as crop health is concerned, but there remains risk in terms of the ability for the forecast to be significantly different when markets reopen Monday evening than it is today. For now, models are in good agreement on additional showers/thunderstorms for the southern plains and mid-south over the weekend and into next week, with the EU's forecast showing rains of 7+" possible through a corridor across the Missouri/Arkansas border stretching from southeast Kansas to western Tennessee/Kentucky. Surrounding areas see a lesser 1-3" possible, with then even more rains expected through next week. To the north, the north-central Midwest will see drier conditions for the next several days, with just limited rain potential seen all week next week to close out the month.
Extended guidance into the first week of June shows a bit of a mixed bag, with the CPC's outlook forecasting much below average precip throughout the northern tier of the US and especially in the northern Corn Belt, while the EU and GFS ensembles agree on seeing the wetter conditions from the Gulf and the southeast extending further north into the Midwest. There doesn't look to be much change in the temperature situation into June, as models are nearly identical in both the 0-5 day and 5–10-day periods; warmth will be confined to the western US and further north into Canada, while the eastern 2/3's of the US stays cooler than average. The 10-15 day runs also shifted a hair towards this outlook today, with the slightly cooler air already present possibly expected to linger even longer.
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Enjoy the night!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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