Friday, February 20, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +1.75 old & +3 new.
Beans: -3.50 old & -3.25 new. Wheat: +14.
PLEASE JOIN US FOR OUR 2026 FOCUS MEETINGS!!
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Happy Friday. Ag markets were mixed to wrap up the week this week, with corn being led higher by more speculative buying in wheat, while the beans were under pressure from the tariff news and the products were mixed on what was a choppy/volatile Friday of trade. Headlines regarding the Supreme Court's decision on President Trump's trade measures were about the only show in town beyond mid-morning, but like we allude to below, the news brought about more questions than answers, which gave the algorithms fits and produced the previously mentioned choppy price action.
Corn Summary-
Steady trade was had in the corn market to end the week on Friday, with prices higher across the board on ongoing strength in the wheat market and as the tariff news had little impact on corn pricing specifically. There wasn't a lot new throughout the day otherwise, with a lot of the trade's focus remaining on crop prospects in South America that are seemingly improving. Recent rains through Argentina's ag belt this week came at an almost perfect time, while a wetter shift in the forecast for Brazil does nothing but boost soil moisture reserves that will be needed later in April/May when the rainy season shuts off. This would tend to bode negative Chicago futures, but until/unless the funds decide they want to pile back into more of a net-short position, we would see a lot of this as old news to the market at this point, and wouldn't necessarily be cause for a quick push lower.
Soybean Summary-
The bean market closed the week quietly lower on Friday after what ended up being a fairly wide-ranging choppy session of trade. Prices were modestly lower throughout most of the overnight session, but worked into the green and made new highs for the week on the open this morning before quickly plunging on the tariff ruling by the Supreme Court. While somewhat speculative still at this point amid all the unknowns, the idea behind the selling in the beans was that if Trump's 10% fentanyl tariff wasn't in place, the Chinese would have no reason to continue trying to appease Trump by buying US beans, and would take their business back to the more economically feasible supplies in Brazil. Data shows around 5-7 MMTs of the original 12 still yet to be shipped, while if that thought process ends up being accurate, we would assume the additional 8 MMTs on top of the original 12 are also in jeopardy to be shipped, let alone even be booked. Like we mentioned above, there are far more questions than answers at this point, which produced the two-sided price action the rest of the day following the announcement.
Wheat Summary-
The wheat market pumped higher for a third straight session on Friday, with values up another 1.5%+ on what continues to be appear to be nothing more than short covering and speculative positioning amid a lack of any other sort of real fresh fundamental news. With the market now at its highest level since last summer and having cleared most short-term resistance, it’s a small shift in focus to new crop fundamentals that is maybe behind the recent rally, but its simply too early in the season in our opinion to make any sort of wholesale assertations on price. Yes, southern hemisphere supplies likely drop from this year's record levels, but does that warrant Chicago futures prices that are at or near $6? Our answer would be maybe, but it depends on a whole bevy of other variables and factors that are likely to change over the next 8-10 months.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.05+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
While there will be ongoing precip across the eastern and northeastern parts of the Midwest this weekend, most of the focus is going to be on the drier regions in the Plains and western Midwest, where fire risks are going to remain elevated at least into the first part of next week. There are precip chances in the models the back half of next week, but these are likely east of the driest parts of northern TX and OK.
Temperatures will be cool throughout most of the US into next week, but then see a return to much warmer than normal temps in the central part of the country by Tuesday/Wednesday, with the 5-10 and 10-15 day outlooks both still warm then throughout most all the US.
New monthly outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, released yesterday for the month of March and pictured above, show broad warmth across a lot of the southern and central parts of the US, while on the precip side, things stay dry in the southwest and wet through the PNW and the northeastern Midwest/Great Lakes region. Recent drought monitor data still shows the east-central Corn Belt as one of the drier areas in the US, which means a wetter shift here would be ideal ahead of planting later in April.
Model runs were wetter in the extended period through central and north-central Brazil today into the first week of March, and were also notably drier through the far southern part of the country and into northern Argentina and Paraguay.
Shorter term through the weekend, rains look to favor the western half of Argentina but will maybe creep into some of the ag regions in the central part of the country, while Brazil will see just light rainfall for another 48 hours or so before precip picks back up into the first part/middle of next week.
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Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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