Thursday, August 11, 2022
Morning Markets: Corn +6 Old & New. Beans +13 Old & New. Wheat +8.
Just a friendly reminder to get with your TFG Originator to update any farm codes or splits before the upcoming harvest. Thank you!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Once again, trade will be paying close attention to today’s export sales totals. Sales of corn, soybeans, and wheat have all been less than desired in recent weeks as the high value of the US dollar has limited buyer interest. Ongoing competition out of Brazil on both corn and soybeans is also cutting into demand for US offers. This is starting to cause some rethinking on current demand forecasts. Even if sales do drop off the United States is still likely to see soybean bookings at or just above the current USDA yearly forecast unless we see considerable cancellations take place. The same is true on corn as demand remains elevated for US offers. The higher quality of US corn is keeping trade interest elevated. Wheat demand is becoming heavily questioned though as sales and exports are some of the lowest in recent history. It appears US wheat demand for the first two months of the marketing year will be the least amount in the past 50 years. While there is plenty of time for what sales to rebound, the longer it takes for wheat demand to build the less optimism trade will show in meeting USDA projections.
Crude Oil is up $0.58 at $92.51
US Dollar is down $0.261 at $104.935
Global Equities: Japan -0.2%, China +2.4%, and Europe +0.1%
Dow futures is up 155 points at 33,415
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.8%, and Wheat +0.5%
Malaysian Palm Oil: +3.5%
Dalian: Corn -0.5%, Soybeans +0.8%, Meal +0.2%
WEATHER:
• Some rain is expected to move through northeast and eastern Iowa over the next couple of days. Otherwise, the GFS still does not show much rain. The extended maps, however, have gone cooler for the entirety of the Midwest. This should help with maintaining conditions and will likely slow maturity.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• Potash and salt miner K+S reiterated its full-year profit guidance on Thursday, as it expects higher fertilizer prices to offset the impact of a potential gas shortage in Germany. The group confirmed its April forecast for 2022 core earnings (EBITDA) in a range of 2.3 billion to 2.6 billion euros ($2.37 billion to 2.67 billion) but now included a gas bottleneck scenario in its calculations. This scenario assumes a 25% reduction in natural gas availability in the fourth quarter, which together with a new gas levy would lead to a cost burden in a low-triple-digit million-euro range, CEO Burkhard Lohr said in a statement. For now, the company expects the gas shortage to only affect its final quarter and early 2023, not the entirety of next year, Lohr told analysts in a call.
• South Africa has negotiated a settlement with the European Union to clear hundreds of shipping containers of citrus fruit stuck in EU ports, the South African government said on Thursday. Shipments were disrupted after the trade bloc implemented new phytosanitary rules that led to a WTO dispute being declared in July, the first-ever WTO dispute settlement case initiated by South Africa.
• The average price of U.S. retail gasoline fell below $4 per gallon on Thursday for the first time in months, giving some relief to drivers in the world's largest consumer of the fuel. The national average price for regular unleaded gas fell to $3.990 a gallon on Aug. 11, according to the American Automobile Association. Gasoline prices peaked at a record $5.02 in June. That high-cost curbed spending, and prices have also dropped as market fears of severe restrictions on supply have ebbed since Russia first invaded Ukraine in February. Gasoline prices tend to peak in the summer. They usually drop as summer driving season ends around Labor Day but that is not until Sept. 5.
• A grain-carrying ship that was scheduled to depart from Ukraine's Chornomorsk port under a U.N.-brokered deal on Thursday was unable to set sail due to bad weather conditions, Turkey's defense ministry said. The deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey between Russia and Ukraine has allowed 12 ships to depart from Ukraine's Black Sea port since Aug. 1.
• Severe drought is set to slash the European Union's maize harvest by 10 million tonnes, dropping it to a 15-year a low of 55.4 million tonnes, consultancy Strategie Grains said in its monthly forecast on Thursday. The forecast marked a 15% cut to its July estimate of 65.4 million tonnes for 2022/23 EU maize (corn) production. Crop forecasters have been slashing their outlooks for the EU maize harvest as worsening drought and successive heatwaves in major producing countries such as France, Romania and Hungary have strained maize plants during their crucial summer growth period.
EXPORT SALES:
• Corn: 191,800mt 21/22 crop. 191,300mt 22/23 crop (Estimates:0-300,000/100,000-600,000).
• Soybeans: -66,700mt 21/22 crop. 477,200mt 22/23 crop (Estimates: -(100,000)-200,000/300,000-700,000).
• Wheat: 259,200mt 22/23 crop (Estimates: 200,000-600,000).
• Meal: 90,900mt 21/22 crop. 311,200mt 22/23 crop (Estimates: 50,000-200,000/75,000-325,000)
• Oil: 600mt 21/22 crop. 0mt 22/23 crop (Estimates: 0-12,000/0-10,000).
EXPORT NEWS:
• Private exporters reported sales of 103,400 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
Have a wonderful day!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
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