Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -7 old & new.
Beans: -14.50 old & new. Wheat: -12.50.

Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.

We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.

Good evening!

Market Recap-
Ag markets finished lower Tuesday, largely giving back gains seen on Monday in both the grain and the soy spaces as profit taking became a common theme amid an ongoing digestion of supply risks around the globe and weather forecasts for US crops as they enter critical growth stages. There wasn't a lot new today in terms of specifics, but like we've seemingly mentioned every day for weeks now, with as many irons as there are in the fire, volatility is going to be common and sometimes for little if any reason other than there are more traders on one side of the order pad than the other.

Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed lower Tuesday, reversing the upside action seen to start the week on what was largely a quiet day from a news standpoint. Crop conditions expectedly continued their decline in yesterday afternoon's report, but this was either a small-scale buy the rumor, sell the fact event, or the trade simply had focus elsewhere amid another selloff in crude oil prices and what continues to be a seemingly precarious juggling act as to which market theme is going to drive price direction that day. Harvest season is quickly approaching and the yield debate is only going intensify once crop tour season gets started, but other market inputs aren't going to simply disappear because combines start rolling in the Midwest and this means unpredictable price action is likely to continue. Today, there's both chart and supply risk support in the mid 4.00's and resistance above $5, but just about any price level in between could be argued as fair until more is known about crop size.

Soybean Summary-
The soy complex also finished Tuesday lower, though it was a similar day to corn in terms of there being little fundamentally new throughout the space and as selling was largely tied to profit taking based on what was a slightly cooler forecast into mid-month. Outside of crop size debate, which will obviously have a sizeable impact on price action into fall and winter, the big question now in our opinion is just how much China buying is priced in? When the market was well above $12 a couple weeks ago, one could've argued a lot if not most of the 25 million tons; but now that we're back into the mid/upper 11's, that answer feels like it could be a bit different. Stabilizing crop conditions and what appears to be moisture on the way for some of the drier areas of the western Corn Belt were also market factors on Tuesday.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed lower Tuesday despite a lot of the headlines in the space still being centered on shipping infrastructure destruction in the Black Sea region. The selling throughout the rest of the space was too much for the wheat market to overcome, but we continue to see wheat fundamentals as bullish on the margin based on the ongoing loss of export capability out of the world's number one shipper. Furthermore, Ukrainian officials said today that alternative water shipping routes were being developed, but that they weren't likely to be usable before the end of August and that they would maybe be able to handle roughly half of the capacity lost on the Black Sea.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down another $4.00-5.00/bbl

Weather Updates-
Weather models were little changed at mid-day in the short term, with a cold front working its away across the Midwest still expected to provide anywhere from a half inch to two inches of rainfall to parts of IA, WI and IL. The mid-day GFS run tried to work rains further west, but continues to differ from the EU model on exact locations.

Temperatures for much of the central US are still expected to be cooler for the rest of the week this week before returning to more normal by the weekend and into next week. Extreme heat in the triple digits is kept largely to the intermountain west.

Ten-fifteen day temperature outlooks were cooler in the models today than yesterday's runs, but the variability is keeping confidence low in any outlook beyond the next week or so. The models are having a hard time with central US high pressure ridging and the resulting thunderstorms it likely produces, which is the general reason for the changing forecasts.

Heat is likely across the southern US into mid-month, but as long as the ridge stays positioned further south, storms and rains through the mid-section of the country should limit any sort of extreme heat there.

Noah Richardson
Topflight Grain Seymour
202 N Main Street, Seymour IL 61875
nrichardson@tfgrain.com
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