Monday, July 27, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -12.50 old & -13.50 new.
Beans: -39.50 old & -39.75 new. Wheat: -18.

Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.

We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.

Good evening!

Market Recap-
Monday ag trade was lower to sharply lower pretty well across the board coming out of the weekend, as a risk-off attitude in world energy markets and a marginally more friendly weather forecast for the Corn Belt produced broad selling across the space throughout the whole of the day. The myriad of bullish market inputs discussed over the last couple weeks haven't suddenly just disappeared, which is why we are viewing today's price action as more of a healthy correction than anything else. New crop futures in both corn and beans have open chart gaps to go after, and we imagine these are good downside objectives to have for the next few days.

Corn Summary-
Corn futures gave back a good portion of last week's gains on Monday, gapping lower on the open Sunday evening and spending a good majority of the day session closer to the overnight lows than not as it was a risk off day to get the last week of July started. Generally speaking, the selling was a two-part situation, with weather risks via heat across a lot of the Midwest this week being lower this morning than they were going home on Friday and then the situation in the Middle East seemingly taking a breather and de-escalating a bit. Traders are well aware of the sell-off that occurred off the highs in late May not too long ago, and it was likely today that some of the faster movers of the bunch pulled the plug on longs early before a similar situation unfolded this time. The supply risks present in Europe and the Black Sea coupled with the global demand risks that are resulting would lead us to believe such a sell-off is not as likely this time around, but today's price action was angst-inspiring for the bulls, nonetheless.

Soybean Summary-
The soy complex had a downright ugly day to start the week on Monday, with it somewhat difficult to separate the horse from the carriage amid the general carnage seen throughout the space for much of the day. While we still view the move as corrective and more tied to risk-off sentiment in global energy values than anything else, the sheer size of today's drop illustrates just how much fund money is moving around within the complex and should be a clear warning about getting over-exposed to trend chasing. It's not new, but there are a lot of irons in the proverbial fire currently, and this is likely to keep volatility elevated in the short term. We view price discovery into fall as a rather precarious dance between a seemingly ever-tightening balance sheet and global supplies that are fairly abundant following multiple good production years in both the US and South America.


Wheat Summary-
Like we touched on in our corn comments, much of the selling in the wheat market Monday could be chalked up to some measure of panic selling, as traders have little if any interest in being caught on the wrong side of the market when the recently re-injected war premium gets sucked from the space again. The situation in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov should, and we stress the term should, keep the market somewhat supported from here, along with what are likely to be further falls in US spring crop conditions this afternoon, but if risk-off stays the theme throughout the rest of the space this week, we would not entirely rule out a further pullback to the 6.60 area. This would be half of the way back down from the top made last week, and would seem to be as good a spot as any for bargain-buying funds to try and get back in on the long side of the market.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $6.75+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Weather forecasts for the Midwest this week trended less threatening over the last couple days, as the models are picking up on ridge-riding thunderstorm activity across more of the central part of the region, which will both increase moisture and keep daytime highs closer to average. Models this afternoon have rainfall totals the next seven days in a range of 1-2" generally, with some locally heavier totals possible.
Extreme heat, for the most part, looks to be kept largely to areas west of the Rockies, which is also a positive shift in the outlook compared to last week. Of note on the concerning side are areas to the far north in ND and MN, as these places don't see a lot of rain potential and also see triple digit heat the next couple days.
Of note, smoke also looks to be a feature again this week across most of the Midwest amid ongoing wildfires in the PNW through parts of WA and OR.
Though our confidence in the extended forecast continues to not be high, the models are in decent agreement this afternoon into the second week of August on an average to slightly below average precip outlook for a lot of the Corn Belt, while temperatures for the region are seen near average from an anomaly standpoint.
On a technical level, the big question over the next ten days or so is how does the high-pressure ridge currently across the central US develop/shift and then how does low pressure troughing currently present in the models across the Canadian Prairies in the same period also develop. If ridging stays present and the trough forms, this could continue to send storms through the mid-section of the country and would likely render the precip forecast above relatively inaccurate.

Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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