Monday, October 12, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +3.25.
Beans: -4.25. Wheat: +1.25.
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags Wednesday, 10/14 from 1:30-3:30pm in Bement
United Prairie will be serving lunch Friday, 10/16 from 11am-1pm in Pierson

Good evening!

Trivia: Who was the youngest U.S. President? (answer below)

Market Recap-
Monday ag trade was a mixed affair to get the week started, with new news largely limited amid it being a federal holiday in the US and as the dust continues to settle on Friday's October WASDE update. The report is going to linger in the background for the foreseeable future amid the bearish input to the corn market, but like we talked about this morning, the fundamental backdrop present at the CBOT today is made up of far more than just supply and demand in the US and that there wasn't a ton of downside follow-through today was at least encouraging.


Corn Summary-
Corn futures tried to claw back a portion of the losses seen to end the week last week on Friday, though they made a rather feeble effort amid the newfound bearishness on the balance sheet and as there was little present in terms of a reason for the market to work higher. The yield numbers, both at the state and national level, are going to get a lot of attention into November's crop report, but no matter how much they're talked about, they aren't going to change over the next four weeks. However, there's still a chance that China shows up to buy US corn, which could bring ending stocks down even if the production number stays elevated. There may be some more minor wiggling go on in November, but focus otherwise is going to shift to the demand side of the US balance sheet, as this now looks to have the biggest impact on carryout over the next several months.

Soybean Summary-
The soy complex started the week mixed on Monday, with the beans lower and the products both in the green on generally moderate volume and a lack of fresh new input. For all the bearishness seen in the grain markets late last week, the beans have held up surprisingly well as there was little if anything that really changed on the fundamental picture here and we would generally expect this to continue this week as many in the I-states should be on the tail end of bean harvest and getting more into corn harvest in the coming days. While quality continues to be a question, yield reports have been remarkably good and in large part have supported the USDA's record yield figure, it's just the question now of demand and whether or not China will keep to its pledge of securing 25 MMTs before the end of the year. If they do, ending stocks likely stay on the tighter side which should keep futures supported; but if they don't and the USDA finds reason to cut exports, ending stocks could quickly rebound to more comfortable levels once more is known regarding the crop in South America.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed near unchanged to start the week on Monday, with it having been another weekend of alleged progress in diplomacy that was immediately followed with reports of more attacks between Russia and Ukraine that indicate there is still little if any actual progress being made. Russia feels it has the upper hand militarily due to Ukraine having limited air defenses, and so long as this remains the case, we don't see Trump or anyone else reaching an agreement with Putin to halt the attacks. Putin wants to win the war, not reach an agreement with the west; it’s as simple as that. Other fundamentals in the wheat market have continued to be more second nature, with there still no sign of a lack of exportable supply in Europe and new crop supplies in the southern hemisphere likely available in another 6-8 weeks.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up around $1.30/bbl.

Weather Updates-
There's noticeably good model agreement on the Midwest weather forecast for the coming week, with a frontal system expected to bring thunderstorms/rainfall to the central part of the region Wednesday/Thursday, while things stay quiet for the most part otherwise. Rainfall totals this afternoon are seen ranging from 1-3" generally for an area from west TX to northern IL/IN, with the heavier totals expected to favor areas to the south.
Temperatures will stay warm across the Corn Belt for the first part of the week, but the frontal system looks to then also bring a cool-down in air temperatures with it, with much of the northern part of the area seeing its first expected frost risk of the season by the end of this week and weekend. Things warm up again into next week and the cooler air doesn't look to last long, but the first shot of chilly fall air looks to be on deck for the back end of this week.
The extended forecast into the end of the month favors a generally drier outlook, with things looking to turn drier again throughout much of the eastern US. The models are keeping chances at being wetter than normal throughout the Plains and central US, but there will be questions as to how far north and east these cut-off lows that are expected to be the source of this precip will be able to make it.
Temperature anomaly maps into the end of the month went back warmer over the weekend for the eastern half of the country, while the west was seen working cooler in the 10-15 day period as high pressure works back east and larger troughing sets up over the West Coast.
While more frontal and not necessarily monsoonal, models do have enough moisture in the forecast for the bulk of central Brazil to sustain planting activities and early season crop development over the next 10-15 days, though on the margin the south will continue to be too wet and the north too dry.

Answer: Theodore Roosevelt. Assumed office at 42 years old. JFK is the youngest elected at 43 years old.


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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