Monday, October 19, 2020

Closing Markets: Corn +3. Beans +4. Wheat +2.

Tentative Customer Appreciation Lunches. Subject to weather
10/19-PIE Postponed to 10/20
10/21-CIS
10/26-SEY
10/28-JOS

Market Recap:

Corn was slightly higher at the close with CZ up 3 ¼ cents and CH 3 ½ cents firmer. Spillover support earlier in the day from wheat coupled with FAS flash sales announcements this morning for 345,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations and 123,000 metric tons for delivery to Mexico, both for the 20/21 marketing year contributed to the firmer tone. The ongoing rise in China's corn futures also offered underlying support, as traders believe this will have China looking to buy more U.S. corn. However, the expectation for an active week of U.S. harvest activity limited gains. NASS will release updated conditions and progress numbers this afternoon, though the results are expected to garner less attention than in recent weeks. Traders expect to see U.S. corn harvest at 51-52% complete vs. 41% last week and a 43% average. Brazil recently announced they will temporarily eliminate the 8% tax on corn imports as domestic prices have soared higher on tight supplies. Weekly U.S. export inspections for corn totaled 35.9 million bu. this morning, a slight uptick from last week’s total of 33.0 million bu. but below the roughly 46.9 million bu. average “needed” per week to meet USDA’s annual export forecast.

Soybeans also finished the day in the green. There were no bean flash sales announcements this morning. Although, talk of Chinese bean imports potentially rising to 105 MMT in 20/21 and a slow start to Brazil’s growing season offered underlying support. Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 79.9 million bu. this morning, with the bulk of the bushels destined for China. YTD U.S. bean inspections total 423.2 million bu. compared to 238.6 million bu. a year ago. In the S. hemisphere, weather maps continue to go back and forth regrading rain for Brazil. Midday, the forecast showed increasing rainfall totals for N Brazil, so traders will monitor this closely moving forward. Brazil soy planting area is estimated at 8% complete compared to a 32% average. Sources in Brazil do, however, indicate they expect to see a record planting pace the next two weeks. NASS will be out with updated U.S. crop conditions and harvest progress this afternoon. Even though we will get these reports for a few more weeks, traders may not show much interest as harvest is winding down on beans. Market participants are expecting to see U.S. bean harvest at 74-75% complete this afternoon compared to 61% last week and a 58% average.

Funds Daily
C +222,000 (+5,000); S +203,000 (+5,000); W +47,000 (+7,000); SM +82,000 (+7,000); BO +56,000 (-5,000)

Crop Progress:

Corn is 60% harvested. Avg. is 43%.
Illinois 66% done
Iowa 65%
Ohio 24%
Indiana 48%
Michigan 24%

Beans are 75% harvested. Avg is 58%.
Illinois 81% done
Iowa 90%
Ohio 65%
Indiana 72%
Michigan 64%

Have a great evening!!!!

Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com

This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. ... See MoreSee Less

7 hours ago

Monday, October 19, 2020

Morning Markets: Corn +2. Beans +3. Wheat -4.
Tentative Customer Appreciation Lunches. Subject to weather
10/19-PIE Postponed to 10/20
10/21-CIS
10/26-SEY
10/28-JOS

MARKET SUMMARY:

Even though we will get reports for a few more weeks, trade may not show much interest in tonight's weekly crop report. Harvest is expected to be winding down on soybeans removing any concern over crop loss. Corn harvest is also advancing and to a point where little worry will be shown on that crop either. The only real interest now will be on the planting and progress of the winter wheat crop ahead of dormancy. As this takes place, we will also start to see a lifting of harvest pressure on corn and soybeans both. This has already started to take place in the Western Corn Belt where soybean harvest has ended in several areas but is now shifting to the Eastern Belt as well. We are still seeing some harvest pressure on corn, but farmers are not as actively selling corn and pressured has been limited. Another shift that comes at the end of harvest is more attention on demand. While demand is always a factor in price discovery, it is now the only topic in the United States until next spring when we start to monitor weather forecasts more closely.

Crude Oil is down $0.11 at $40.77.
US Dollar is down 0.312 at $93.37.
Global Equities: Japan +1.3%, China +0.6%, and Europe +0.5%.
Dow futures is up 215 points at 28,623.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +1.1%, and Wheat +1.0%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: -3.2%.
Dalian- Corn +1.2%. Soybeans +4.0%. Meal +0.5%.



WEATHER:
• The Midwest forecast has a few rain chances on and off this week, which could disrupt some harvest progress in some areas. Temps will warm up sharply in the middle of the week before cooling down once again by the weekend.

OTHER HEADLINES:
• Brazil will suspend tariffs on corn and soy imports from countries outside the Mercosur trade bloc until early next year to help reduce food prices that are pushing up inflation. Record high prices for both grains have impacted food prices that are fueling inflation and squeezing incomes of Brazilians that have already been hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Inflation in August hit its highest in four years for that month, driven by rising fuel and food costs. The tariff on corn and soy imports from outside Mercosur, which includes Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina, is currently 8%, and 6% for soy meal and 10% for soy oil.

• China's third-quarter pork production rose 18% from a year earlier to 8.4mmt pointing to the first signs of recovery in the world's top producer. It was the first quarter since July-September of 2018 to show a year-on-year increase in pork output.

• WEEKLY EXPORT SALES: Corn: 1,226,000 mt vs trade estimates of 700 – 1,500,000; sold 44% of USDA estimate vs 28%. Soybeans: 2,591,000 mt vs trade estimate of 1,500 – 2,500,000; sold 70% of USDA estimate vs 42%.

• Damage estimates from the August 10th derecho that slammed parts of the Midwest are growing, with the total now at $7.5 billion. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it is currently the second-costliest U.S. disaster so far in 2020, although cost estimates for widespread wildfires along the West Coast are not yet available.

• The Mato Grosso Institute of Ag Economics reporting soybean seeding n Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest crop producing state, reached 8.19% of the estimated area versus 41.8% a year ago and the five-year average of 32.84%.

EXPORT NEWS:

• Export sales of 345,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

• Export sales of 123,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

Have a great day!!!!

Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com

This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. ... See MoreSee Less

13 hours ago