Thursday, October 21, 2021

Morning Markets: Corn -3. Beans -10. Wheat -9.

Monticello FFA porkchop lunch Thursday, October 21st at 11:30am.

MARKET SUMMARY:

There are two vast differences in opinions forming on current stocks to use figures on grains and oilseeds. Domestically we have started to see stocks to use increase on corn and soybeans in recent months. These are now projected at 10.1% on corn and 7.3% on soybeans for the end of the 2021/22 marketing year. These are both right at levels where rationing would be considered but not necessarily needed. This is a considerable change in the mindset of the market from just a few months ago when the market was worried over the possibility of depleting domestic reserves, especially on soybeans. As a result, we have seen much less urgency in the market, and less buying interest from the speculative crowd. We have seen the same change in global figures, although these numbers are not as negative. This is more of a case on corn where even with an 83 million metric ton increase in production from last year, our reserves at the end of the year are only forecast to increase 12 million metric tons. In the world soy complex we are expected to see a 5.4 million metric ton rise in stocks, even with production climbing 20 million metric tons. These figures show how important it is for large global crops every year.

Crude Oil is down $0.67 at $82.75.
US Dollar is up $0.095 at $93.653.
Global Equities: Japan -1.3%, China -0.5%, and Europe -0.2%.
Dow futures is down 110 points at 35,367.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.5%, and Wheat +0.4%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: -1.7%.
Dalian: Corn +0.5%, Soybeans +2.6%, and Meal +0.2%

WEATHER:
• Scattered showers are moving across portions of the central corn belt this morning, bringing bean harvest to a standstill. The next rain event is wetter than previously advertised and is expected next Sunday thru Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall is expected across SE IA, N MO, IL, IN and OH where 1” to 3” are possible. NOAA’s 6 to 10-day outlook is wetter than normal for the Midwest, as well as the Pacific Northwest.

OTHER HEADLINES:
• Mexico's agriculture minister said the country would not limit imports of GMO corn from the United States during a meeting with U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack in Iowa on Wednesday. Mexico published an executive order late last year that sought to ban the use of GMO corn for human consumption.

• USDA Foreign Agriculture Service estimates Brazilian soy production at a record 145 MMTs versus USDA’s official WASDE outlook of 144 MMTs and 137 MMTs in 2020/21.

• Recent ethanol production data is starting to indicate the USDA may be understating the amount of corn used to produce fuel alcohol by as much as 100 million bushels.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday that Russians will take a paid week off work to try to combat the Covid-19 crisis in the country, as the number of daily Covid deaths reached its highest ever level since the start of the pandemic.

• Weekly EIA Ethanol Report: Production: +64,000 at 1,096,000 BPD (+6.2%); trade expected +2%. Stocks: +233,000 to 20.080 million barrels (+1.2%); trade expected +1%.

EXPORT SALES:
• Corn: 1,273,200mt 21/22 crop. (Estimates: 700,000-1,400,000).
• Soybeans: 2,878,000mt 21/22 crop. (Estimates: 1,500,000-2,500,000).
• Wheat: 362,400 21/22 crop. (Estimates: 250,000-650,000).
• Meal: 240,400mt 21/22 crop. (Estimates: 150,000-400,000)
• Oil: -3,000mt 21/22 crop. (Estimates: 4,000-30,000).

EXPORT NEWS:

• Exporters reported sales of 130,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

Have a great day!!!!

Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com

This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. ... See MoreSee Less