Monday, February 23, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: Unchanged old & new.
Beans: -3.25 old & +2.25 new. Wheat: -4.
PLEASE JOIN US FOR OUR 2026 FOCUS MEETINGS!!
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Knights of Columbus in Lincoln with breakfast at 8:00am and meeting to follow.
Tuesday, March 3rd at the Monticello Community Building in Monticello with lunch at 12:00pm and meeting to follow.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Markets closed mixed on Monday to start a new week of trade in Chicago in what was largely a two-sided day; values were lower in the overnight session, then rallied and were higher throughout the first part of the morning, then sold off again before the noon hour before closing in the middle of the day's range for the most part before it was all said and done. The choppiness reflects the myriad of questions now being asked surrounding Trump's tariffs and the US trade situation, and is likely to continue this week as the headlines don't presumably slow in the immediate term.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed unchanged to slightly higher to start the week this week, with prices seeing a fairly wide-ranging start to the week despite not actually ending up going anywhere by the end of the day as a morning rally across the space failed into the noon hour. May futures were able to score new six-week highs on the strong export data this morning, but this is becoming old news to some extent, which is why it wasn't able to sustain buying throughout the day. The problem in the corn market isn't that the world doesn't have anywhere for supplies to go, its that the world's largest producers are all going to have record or near-record crops at the same time, which almost always drives prices lower regardless of what demand does. Yes, low prices cure low prices at some point, but when everybody has low prices and yours aren't the cheapest, that process takes longer to work out than normal as buyers can simply turn elsewhere if any one country's products get too expensive.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was on a bit of a roller coaster on Monday, as bean futures traded a good 20+ cent range throughout the day before largely finishing near unchanged, while the products were also wide-ranging and mixed on another round of RVO headlines. Ideas coming out of the weekend that the Chinese were now less likely to make good on additional purchases of US beans was the source of the early pressure, and was reasonable given some 5+ MMTs of the original 12 has yet to ship and also as the market is now trying to pencil in another 8 MMTs requested by Trump a couple weeks ago. There wasn't a lot explicitly new as far as the RVO is concerned, but traders again decided to press the buy button on headlines that the EPA would be submitting its proposal to the White House this week, setting the table for a ruling then in the next two to four weeks. Why this headline continues to get such fanfare we are not sure, but its been enough to push the market to new contract highs multiple times now in recent days.
Wheat Summary-
After trading to their highest level since last July early in the session on Monday, wheat futures reversed course and finished the day lower for the first time since last Tuesday by the end of the day as the buying wasn't able to be sustained beyond the noon hour. Despite the turnaround though, the push to new highs amid Friday's commitment of traders report still showing funds still sitting on a sizeable net-short position is not nothing, and is a possible indicator that perhaps there is more at play here than just speculative money flows. We talk about in corn and beans, but remember, this is a futures market, and one that has been talking about global oversupply for months now. At some point, focus will shift to something else, and this is maybe what has gotten fund traders to begin adjusting positions over the last few weeks.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures unchanged.
Weather Updates-
US weather focus has been away from the Midwest to start the week this week, as a large low-pressure system has been dumping snow across the northeast last night and throughout the day today. Totals have reached upwards of 8-15" along a wide swath of the East Coast in the last 24 hours, with additional snow expected to continue falling throughout the evening tonight.
Elsewhere, weather through the Corn Belt this week will be quiet through the first half, with temperatures warming a bit after today's cold blast and little in the way of precip besides a small clipper system through the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Then the back half of the week, models are in fairly good agreement on a bigger precip event for the eastern/southeastern US, where areas generally south of the Ohio River expect to pick 1-2" of rainfall, while areas north of there see light snow possible in a somewhat narrow band from SD through IA and into IL/IN.
Forecasts in the week two period, which now stretch into the second week of March, came into good agreement over the weekend on a wet streak stretching from TX north and east through the drier parts of the central Midwest and then into the northeast which will be watched over the next several days.
On the temperature front, models continue to have colder arctic air staying further to the north for the most part and have stuck with the same warmer biases seen last week, but do have the possibility of that cool air periodically dipping into the northern US at times despite the overall pattern staying warm.
This afternoon's GFS run has just limited precip for most of Argentina's ag regions through the week this week, but has storms returning by the weekend to bring rains back to the area by the first part of next week. Temperature anomaly maps have continued to keep any sort of extreme heat absent, with temperatures expected to be average or slightly below average into the first part of March.
Meanwhile for Brazil, following a drier week last week models are back wetter again this week, with this afternoon's run showing a half inch to two inches of rainfall possible throughout the northern and north-central parts of the country, with heavier amounts possible further to the east. Like Argentina, the presence of near-daily rains will continue to keep any sort of heat concerns absent, with temperatures also expected to be average to slightly below average throughout the week this week and into next week.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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