Friday, September 17, 2021
Morning Markets: Corn -4. Beans -12. Wheat -1.
MARKET SUMMARY:
The United States is predicting a large decline in corn and soybean exports this marketing year from last. Corn exports are forecast to decline by 270 million bu. and soybean exports are expected to decrease by 170 million bu. The initial reaction to this is that demand will be down, but that may not be the case. For corn the USDA has bumped up its forecast for domestic use by 130 million for the 2021/22 marketing year with the bulk of this being in ethanol manufacturing. Domestic use of soybeans is expected to rise by 54 million bu., mainly from a rebound in crush. Even on wheat the USDA is predicting a 117 million bu. decline in exports but a 67 million bu. elevation in domestic use. These changes make it more likely the United States will be able to export finished products than whole grains. The two uses that will get the most attention are livestock and ethanol manufacturing as it is thought the US will see higher demand on both. Long term this may be more beneficial to the agricultural industry as it will all processors to capture processing margins and for exporters to generate revenue as well.
Crude Oil is down $0.42 at $72.19.
US Dollar is down $0.125 at $92.807.
Global Equities: Japan -1.1%, China -1.8%, and Europe -0.3%.
Dow futures is down 50 points at 34,699.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.9%, and Wheat +0.6%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: +1.5%.
Dalian: Corn -0.4%, Soybeans -0.7%, Meal +0.2%.
WEATHER:
• Showers and thunderstorms are moving across E NE and W IA this morning but are expected to weaken as the system shifts eastward. Rain chances across the Plains and WCB will remain limited over the next 10 days. Meanwhile, the pattern for the Delta and the far ECB looks to be more active with 1-3” rains possible early next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• It looks to be a busy harvest weekend in spots, which is limiting corn and bean futures this morning.
• The latest drought monitor show 30.0% of the US corn crop and 26.0% of the US soy crop under moderate to intense drought, unchanged from last week.
• The Argentina government wants to extend its executive order power over export taxes through 2024. Executive powers over export taxes, laid out in a 2019 law, were set to expire at the end of this year. The budget bill doesn’t seek to tweak the maximum rates for commodities fixed in the 2019 law, including 33% for soybeans; 15% for corn and wheat; and 8% for oil, natural gas, and mining.
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting 2.3% of the Argentina corn crop has been seeded.
• Ukraine Ag Ministry reporting a record wheat harvest of more than 33 MMTs, up 33.0% from a year ago. The Ministry also reporting harvest is now 100.0% complete.
EXPORT NEWS:
• Export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
Have a great day!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
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8 hours ago
Thursday, September 16, 2021
Closing Markets: Corn -4. Beans +1. Wheat +1.
Market Recap:
A higher overnight session in corn futures gave way to a mostly weaker day session as overall trading activity was quiet following a two-day 20 cent bounce. Talk of lower-than-expected corn yields have offered support this week, while today the focus was more on a slow export sales report. The weekly sales report showed that corn sales totaled just 9.7 million bu. Weekly sales need to average 30.2 million bu. per week to meet the USDA sales goal. Reminder that the export sales projection for 21/22 was increased by 75 million bu. to 2.475 billion bu. in last week’s report. Wheat sales were good at 22.7 million bu. and need to average just 13 million bu. over the next 37 weeks. The quarterly stocks report looms at the end of the month. This will set the final ending stocks for the 20/21 marketing year. Final wheat production numbers will also be released in the small grain’s summary. Harvest is picking up in most spots along the southern half of the Midwest. The forecast looks favorable for an active harvest pace through the end of the month. A few light showers are expected early next week.
Soybean futures closed mixed with the nearby finishing higher and the deferred weaker. November beans had a 17-cent range with the $13.08 high being the highest level on the chart since late August. Talk that China was booking some U.S. beans offered support as well as the weekly export sales report. Bean sales totaled 46.5 million bu. Year to date bean sales total 819 million bu., versus 1.188 billion bu. a year ago. Bean sales need to average 25.4 million bu. per week to meet the USDA goal of 2.090 billion bu. Harvest has yet to start in the Midwest, but activity should be more earnest next week. NOPA crush for August, released yesterday, came in about 5 million bu. better than expected. The outside markets showed the dollar higher. Equities were weaker and crude was steady.
Have a great evening!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
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1 day ago
