Tuesday, January 14, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn -1.75 old & -1 new.
Beans -3 old & -6.75 new. Wheat +1.25.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning! Markets are finally taking a breather this morning after two significant up days. Corn futures are down 1-2c, Soybean futures are down 1-3c, and wheat futures are up 2c. The US Dollar index is lower at 109.465 and Crude oil is slightly weaker down 18c/barrel to $78.64. Soybean oil and meal are both lower as well. CONAB data was released this morning, and it was estimated that the Brazilian crop will be 166.3 MT soybeans and 119.5 MT corn. The U.S. farmer was an active seller yesterday, although not quite as active as report day last Friday. Basis remains very defensive in the country with many terminals/processors backing up a nickel to a dime. Argentina and Brazil's forecast is still a point of focus. Nearby spreads are slightly firmer this morning but have recently worked wider with active farmer selling and heavy January logistics.
Crude Oil is down $0.78 at $78.04
US Dollar is down at $109.55
Global Equities: Japan -0.0%, China +2.3%, and Europe +0.6%
Dow futures is up 134 points at 42,657
Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
• An 'arctic blast' is projected to hit the Midwest this week. This will bring frigid temperatures and pose some challenges on the logistics front for grain movement in some areas. Light snow has hit some of the Midwest but is not supposed to dump significant amounts.
• The 5-day U.S. forecast shows some good amounts of precipitation hitting the southeast in states like Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
• Brazil Weather: Widespread rains in Brazil have been favorable for soybean fill, but have hampered some early harvest progress. Showers across southern Brazil have been scarce which has brought up some minor concerns in the Matto Grosso area.
• Argentina Weather: Soil moisture is depleting in some spots with temperatures in the 90s and 100s in some spots. There is a chance for some showers to move in later this week but any significant amounts are limited in the 5-day forecast. However, the 10-15 days forecast shows some opportunities for rainfall into next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• Yesterday afternoon's CFTC commitment of traders report showed as of January 7th, 2025 managed money traders were net long 253,346 contracts of corn (+24,539 for the week), net short 28,612 contracts of soybeans (+13,834 for the week), and net short 120,495 contracts of Chicago wheat (+129 for the week). These figures do not include the projected large buying by the funds on both Friday and Monday's sessions.
• CONAB released data this morning: Soybeans estimated at 166.3 MT and corn at 119.5 MT. For soybeans, this was below trade expectations and slightly up from December estimates. February is projected to have huge harvested volumes if rain does not delay the beginning of harvest.
• Basis continues to grind lower on both corn and beans across the country. CIF Values were lower again yesterday with Jan CIF corn trading at +62H and soybeans at +76H. Western rail was also much weaker with Hereford, TX rail bids at +90h for Feb. Soybean processors backed off another 5-10c after consecutive higher days on the soybean board.
• January '25 soybeans futures expire today. CBOT deliveries for Jan 15th included 112 Jan contracts (Stopped by Bunge). Soybeans have tried to test the November highs over the past couple of sessions. Additional bullish news included a 198k MT flash sale of soybeans to China yesterday.
• CH25/K25 corn spread was out to -10.25 during the overnight session and is currently trading at -10.0. SH25/K25 is trading at -13.0 and has been as wide as -13.75. The ZWH/K25 spread remains at -12.0 trading in a tight range overnight. The July/Sep traded as high as a 36c inverse during yesterday's session. New crop spreads continue to firm.
EXPORT NEWS:
• Private exporters reported sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Have a good day!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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