Friday, May 15, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -11.75 old & -10.25 new.
Beans: -15.50 old & -12.75 new. Wheat: -22.25 old & new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
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Market Recap-
Happy Friday. The Thursday sell-off across the CBOT spilled over into Friday and lasted into the close to end the week, as fund and spec traders resumed their dash for the exits early in the day this morning. From a 30,000 foot perspective, there isn't a lot new to discuss this afternoon - traders had injected a sizeable amount of premium in the soy space on hope that Trump would chide the Chinese into making additional soybean purchases (along with other ag goods including corn and wheat), and when they realized this wasn't going to be the case, they exited those positions and extracted the premium. Price action the last couple days is not much more complicated than that.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures shed length for the second consecutive day to end the week on Friday, with spot July futures crashing through last week's low and settling right on the 200-day moving average amid an ongoing exodus of stale longs in the space. Like the most recent US-China meeting last fall, there were again rumors that surfaced this week of a potential deal involving purchases of US corn and DDGs, but they again never came to fruition. Yes, the fundamental/economic situation in China could warrant Beijing taking more US corn, but amid a larger trade standoff between them and President Trump and what seems to be quite a bit of confusion still around the soybean deal, we just continue to see the odds that this happens at any sort of scale as being unlikely. With that said, focus into next week and the back half of month seemingly returns to the Middle East, with the situation there ongoing and the Strait of Hormuz still shuttered.
Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished the week mixed on Friday, with the products mostly higher while the beans capped what has been a two-day slide of more than 50 cents in the July contract. Like we said at the top, there's not a lot else to it besides the fact that there were spec/fund traders who had been long the market on ideas that a deal would be made and once they realized this wasn't going to be the case, they headed for the exits. Whether the selling carries into next week becomes the question now, as from a technical standpoint, spot futures are quickly back to the bottom end of the sideways trading range that was seen for much of March and April. Should futures fall another 20 cents next week and make new lows, we would assume there would be little stopping them from falling further to go test the 2026 lows. If the fund bulls are going to stick around, they are going to need to be fed, and at some point, it's going to need to be by something other than crush margins and biofuel demand.
Wheat Summary-
Though the beans got all the headlines, wheat futures led the day's selling from a percentage standpoint, as they have now wiped out all of the WASDE day crop loss rally and then some. Though the China headlines have obviously produced headwinds across the whole of the space, we are actually a bit surprised at the sheer size of the selling in the wheat market the back half of this week amid how quickly the sky was seemingly falling just three days ago on Tuesday. The Black Sea region has continued to deal with excessive moisture through a lot of the spring planting season which is likely going to lead to acreage reductions, and there also expected to be sizeable new crop production reductions from last year in both Australia and Argentina; production issues don't end with the US, and we would think this would come back to be supportive for futures at some point.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $4.00+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Weekend weather across much of the Midwest looks to feature warmer temps than have been seen the last several weekends, with variable storm activity expected across much of the region. The Storm Prediction Center's convective outlooks this afternoon have the best chances at storms through the weekend staying generally in the western Midwest, but this storm activity looks to work east into next week.
Getting into next week, models have a brief period of cooler air for the mid-section of the country early in the week, but temperatures are generally seen then staying mostly average to a hair above average into the end of the month.
Extended forecasts on the precip side have continued to see quite a bit of run-to-run fluctuation, but are still mostly non-threatening across the Corn Belt amid what looks to be an ongoing mix of rain and sunshine. Soil moisture maps have fallen back into deficits across a lot of the region, but look to see improvement over the next week to two weeks.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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