Monday, March 20, 2023
Morning Markets: Corn -4. Beans -7. Wheat -8.
MARKET SUMMARY:
While the data release is still two weeks away, we are starting to see more attention on the upcoming quarterly stocks and projected plantings reports that will be released March 31st. As for acreage, trade is expecting to see a jump in corn and wheat plantings and steady soybean acres from last year. In the February Ag Outlook Forum, the USDA projected acres of 91 million for corn, 87.5 million on soybeans, and 49.5 million for wheat. Several private analysts feel this year’s corn planting may come in above the Forum estimate, with some thinking corn acres could hit 92 or even 92.5 million. This is based off current market economics though, and while these do favor corn, wet soils may prevent acres from reaching that level. This is a topic that will see more debate as the spring progresses and well after the March report. As for the quarterly stocks, trade is split in its estimates. Last year the March 31st stocks totaled 7.85 billion bu. on corn, 1.93 billion bu. for soybeans, and 1.02 billion bu. on wheat. While opinions differ, several believe we will see more corn this year and less soybeans and wheat. While the acreage data tends to receive more publicity, the stocks data can have more of an impact on futures.
Crude Oil is down $1.04 at $65.70.
U.S. Dollar is down $0.259 at $103.554.
Global Equities: Japan -1.5%, China -2.7%, and Europe +0.6%
Dow futures is up 9 points at 32,080.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -1.1%, and Wheat -1.1%
Dalian: Corn +0.1%, Soybeans -0.7%, Meal -2.8%
WEATHER:
• It was a cold weekend across the U.S. with temps expected to warm through the east side this week. Rain, however, will impact the east with heavy totals expected on a line from Missouri to Ohio later this week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• China's soybean imports from the U.S. rose 15.4% in the first two months of this year, data showed on Monday, as delays in harvesting in top supplier Brazil prompted buyers to seek more U.S. beans. The world's top buyer of soybeans, China bought 11.59 million tonnes of the oilseed from the United States, up from 10.04 million tonnes a year ago, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Imports from Brazil, meanwhile, fell 36% to 2.24 million tonnes. Rain delayed the harvest in key growing regions in Brazil and has also slowed the movement of soybeans to ports, according to some analysts. Total imports in the period reached a record 16.2 million tonnes, data showed earlier this month, as buyers stocked up in anticipation of healthy demand this year.
• Ukraine's 2023 combined grain and oilseed harvest is seen falling to a preliminary 63 million tonnes from 70 million tonnes harvested in 2022, Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky told Reuters on Monday. Solsky declined to give an exact forecast for the volume of the grain and oilseed harvest for this year but said the area under winter grains appeared to be slightly higher than the ministry expected. Preliminary data showed the 2022 grain harvest fell to around 54 million tonnes from a record 86 million in 2021. Output was hit by hostilities in Ukraine's eastern, northern, and southern regions following Russia's invasion. Ukraine's national academy of agricultural science said this month that the grain harvest could fall 37% to 34 million tonnes in 2023 because of a smaller grain sowing area and lower yield.
• Rapeseed output in India, the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils, is likely to rise 7.5% this year due to a record planting of the winter-sown oilseed, a leading trade body said on Monday. Farmers are likely to harvest a record 11.5 million tonnes in the crop year to June 2023, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) told a news conference in the north-western state of Rajasthan, producer of more than half of India's rapeseed. Last year, the country produced 10.7 million tonnes of rapeseed, which has the highest oil content among India's nine main oilseeds. "Rapeseed production would have been even higher, but unfavorable weather in January affected yields," said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Mumbai-based industry body, releasing a field survey.
• Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi held talks with high-ranking Russian officials on Sunday to discuss a Russian-built nuclear plant under construction on Egypt's north coast as well as grains supply and food security, Egypt's presidency said. The meeting with officials including Russia's trade minister and a special envoy of President Vladimir Putin also addressed the establishment of a Russian industrial zone inside the Suez Canal's Economic Zone, among other investments, it added. Construction by Russia's state-owned energy corporation Rosatom of Egypt's first nuclear plant at El Dabaa began in July of last year and is expected to take until at least 2030. In the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Egypt has been trying to balance long-standing ties with both Russia and Western powers.
EXPORT NEWS:
• N/A
Have a wonderful day!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
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