Friday, March 13, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +4.75 old & +1.50 new.
Beans: -2 old & -6 new. Wheat: +15.25 old & +15 new.
Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Happy Friday. Mixed trade was had at the CBOT to end the week, spurred mostly by a mixed day in the energy markets as this continues to be the number one determiner of ag futures prices. Corn and soybean fundamentals have gone by the wayside almost entirely, which has made predicting daily price swings difficult. What is known is that there has been an injection of premium due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on world oil flows; should the Strait reopen via an end to the war, which President Trump has continued to tout as what's coming, we assume this premium gets quickly extracted. Grain and soy markets are over-valued relative to fundamentals.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures put in strong closes to the week on Friday, as values continue to be extremely correlated to energy markets, which popped at mid-day and were higher into the afternoon. Strength in the wheat market also helped, but its speculative buying based on the situation in Iran that is without a question the number one factor in price discovery. Until this changes, we see little reason to account for market fundamentals; the last two week's rally is speculative and chart-based, and nothing else. Don't get lulled to sleep by war headlines, and remember, the March stocks and seeding report is just 12 trading days away now.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures were the lone laggard in the grain and soy markets on Friday, as values closed lower on what we assume to be position squaring ahead of US-China meetings that are set to take place over the weekend and into the first part of next week. Between this, ongoing speculation surrounding biofuels and the EPA's RVO announcement, Brazil's crop, and now extreme volatility in world energy markets, market outlook has become rather convoluted of late. Strictly from a fundamental standpoint, new crop carry out projections and export pace analysis would argue the market is probably over valued right now, but like we've recently talked about, the market being overvalue in absolutely no way means the current rally needs to end. In the days of trade computer trading, money flow dominates and right now, money flow is to the long side of ags.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures led the CBOT higher on a percentage basis to end the week on Friday, as a coming cold snap and a lack of snow cover across the US wheat belt caused an injection of weather premium going into the weekend. There's little else to point otherwise in terms of reason for the strength other than an up day in energy prices, which like the case in the other ag markets, has had an overly outsized impact on price discovery over the last 10 days.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $2.50+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Weekend weather will feature a winter storm system for the central and northern parts of the Midwest starting Saturday night in the west and working east through the weekend and into the first part of next week. Parts of WI and MI look to pick up multiple feet of snow out of this system, while a lesser 3-5" is expected through parts of the Dakotas, MN, IA, and northern IL.
The system will also usher in much cooler air for a day or two to start next week, with highs on Monday across the Midwest expected to be some 30-40 degrees cooler than the highs seen over the weekend. The cold doesn't last though, as models have warmer air and high pressure ridging again dominating most of the country into the end of next week.
The high pressure ridging next week talked about above will limit precip mostly to the northeast and northern parts of the US through the week next week and then into the back half of the month, as models have been in good agreement all week on a drier outlook for the week two period for almost all of the US.
Weather for South America through the weekend will continue to be largely non-threatening, as a mix of rain and sunshine looks to be impact most of the growing regions in both Brazil and Argentina. Heat continues to be a non-factor for both as well, which has helped with yields being mostly better than expected to this point.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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