Monday, August 31, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +3 old & +1.25 new.
Beans: +0 old & new. Wheat: -10

Good evening!

Market Recap-
Ag markets were mixed to wrap up the month of August on Monday, with wheat futures lower and the corn and beans generally higher though all three finished the day more in the middle of their trading ranges than at either end as much of the input remains little changed from previous days. The calendar will flip to September tomorrow, but unfortunately, traders have arguably just as much unknown to deal with now as they did 31 days ago when August started, with crops still largely a question mark and there seemingly being little if any progress in either the Middle East or the Black Sea. For that reason, CBOT pricing, while bullish on the margin, continues to be a precarious mix risk management and speculation that we see lingering for the time being.

Corn Summary-
Corn futures finished quietly higher on Monday, scoring a new round of contract highs on what continues to be premium injection based on ideas that the crop is only getting smaller from here and not larger. That prices held up as well as they did to start the week despite relatively heavy selling in the wheat should be encouraging to the bulls and would seem to illustrate that while global grain fundamentals are certainly friendly, corn futures in the US have their own bullish fundamental backdrop until a bottom is found on the 2026/27 production figure. Harvest is getting close, and we imagine the funds stay long until they know for sure what production looks like.

Soybean Summary-
The soy complex put in a quietly mixed day on Monday, seemingly trading in anticipation of the EPA news that was dropped this afternoon after the markets closed amid there being little else fundamentally fresh throughout the day today otherwise. From a big-picture standpoint, the bean market is somewhat stuck between the pull of a US crop that seemingly has room to get bigger still following decent August weather and the push of strong demand both domestically and globally, and we're simply not sure when this changes or which side ends up winning out in the end. In our opinion, the next leg of the rally - should it occur - isn't necessarily going to be based on supply and demand in the US, but will instead be predicated largely on planting progress in South America and just how much of an early impact El Niño will have on production prospects there. If beans are going to get back in the teens and stay there, Brazil not producing a record crop again this year would be a large help.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed lower on Monday but were well off their lows scored earlier in the session largely on profit taking and a proverbial battening down of the hatches amid rumors that Turkey may be getting close to brokering some sort of grain trade agreement between Russia and Ukraine. We'll get right to it and admit we're skeptical that such an agreement proceeds with Putin's rhetoric over the last several weeks being what its been and with the lack of backing from the UN, but the risk associated with such a development really left traders with little choice but to trim position sizes out of the weekend. Otherwise, talk of alternative export routes for both countries are continuing to get traction in the newswires, but are a drop in the bucket in terms of lost capacity compared to normal.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $2.00+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Corn Belt weather looks to have a more summer-like feel to it this week than it did the last several days, as high pressure ridging that had been present across the southwestern US works its way north and east into the mid-section of the country. The pattern will see daytime highs throughout the region in the upper 80s and 90s into next weekend, with triple digits possible in some areas further south.
Rains are likely to be limited this week to just areas around the periphery of the ridge, with storm systems expected to provide up to maybe 2" of moisture at most throughout parts of MN and WI, while the rest of the area sees a more general half inch to an inch. How far south the rains are able to make it will be watched for the next several days.
Beyond this week, the models have a bit of recency bias in them and generally show the same high pressure ridge lingering into mid-month, which is keeping the temperature outlook warmer and is also keeping rains pushed mostly to the north and east.
Generally speaking, the Midwest pattern into the middle of September will be largely driven by what goes on in the west and whether or not flow (which is determined mostly by either troughs or ridges) is coming out of the southwest or northwest. Today, both anomaly maps in the week two period and the CPC's outlook for the period each have drier biases throughout a lot of the Midwest, though confidence is not high.


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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