Thursday, May 14, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -13.25 old & -11.75 new.
Beans: -36.50 old & -24.25 new. Wheat: -17.50 old & new.

Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.

We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.

Good evening!

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Market Recap-
CBOT ag markets were under pressure from the word go on Thursday, led to the downside by the bean market, who did not take kindly to day one of the Trump-Xi summit in China amid comments that there would not be any additional purchases beyond what was "agreed to" in Busan last fall. There was also no talk of grain purchases either though, which led to similar selling there on a percentage basis. We cautioned for weeks that there was hope premium in the markets regarding this meeting, and today appeared to be step one in that premium being removed. That said, Trump has not left China, and it is a two-day summit, which means additional headlines are expected overnight that may or may not change sentiment before the week ends.

Corn Summary-
Corn futures bled lower on Thursday, erasing much of the last week's rally and closing back near the lows made five trading sessions ago on a combination of China disappointment and a nearly-ideal forecast for the Corn Belt into the end of the month while the E15 news seems to have been back-burnered. It's really not much more complicated than that. The funds are sitting on a fairly hefty long position, which means any sort of negative headlines subject prices to liquidation selling, and we assume this was largely the case today. However, like we mentioned at the top, Trump has not headed back to the states yet and there are likely to be additional headlines tomorrow morning. We would also add that nothing has changed in the Middle East, which has still been the source of some of the premium put in the market since the start of spring.

Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures sold off hard on Thursday, driven by a lack of new purchase agreements by the Chinese and what we assume was a mass exodus of stale longs that have been banking on something friendly out of this meeting for weeks now. Additional old crop purchases were always going to be a long shot in our opinion simply due to economics, but we have no idea what to make of the 25 MMTs of purchases the US side continues to stand on but that the Chinese have made no mention of. There were rumors (a single source) on Thursday that China would be dropping it's 10% tariff on US beans in exchange for the US dropping it's 10% fentanyl tariff, but we have been unable to confirm this. However, such a move would be critical for non-state buyers being able to source US supplies again, which we see as critical to China's ability to make good on the 25 MMTs of purchases US traders seem to bank on.

Wheat Summary-
Just two days ago it seemed the wheat market was headed for the $7 mark amid crop loss in the west, but you wouldn't know it based on today's price action that has now wiped out about half of that rally. We've talked about it before, but supply driven rallies are fickle, and today's price action in the wheat seems to be a perfect example. Whether or not today's high has priced in the worst of the supply panic this week will be the big question now going forward; the US supply situation is only a small piece of the world puzzle, but a shift to El Niño and a shaky start to the spring season in the Black Sea region have given the market enough reason to at least stay supported into harvest.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $0.30+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Both the EU and the GFS models this afternoon continue to be in good agreement on increasing rainfall throughout much of the central part of the country beginning the first part of next week. Seven day totals are seen anywhere from an inch to upwards of 4-5", with coverage likely to impact most all of the Corn Belt, as well areas around the Gulf and other parts of the southern US.
Temperature forecasts are also little changed for the most part into next week, with the models showing heat lingering through the mid-section of the country over the weekend and into the first part of next week. Daytime highs through Tuesday next week likely stay well above average, but then moderate a bit by the back half of next week as cooler air works in from the northwest.
Week two precip anomaly forecasts have trended wetter the last 24 hours, especially across the southern part of the US, but also through the Midwest and generally the eastern 2/3s of the country. There will be pockets through the central part of the Midwest that maybe see more average rainfall, but there are no significantly dry pockets seen in the forecast today.
Beyond the above mentioned brief cold snap expected the end of next week, models have temperatures generally staying above average throughout most all of the country, though the warmest air looks to continue favoring areas west of the Rocky Mountains for the most part.


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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