Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +1 old & +0.50 new.
Beans: +26.50 old & +8.25 new. Wheat: -2.


Good evening!

Market Recap-
The soy complex closed sharply higher on Wednesday while the grains were near unchanged on what was a good old fashioned China day, with President Trump taking to Truth Social to let farmers know he was requesting more soybean purchases. That said, prices were some 20+ cents off their highs by the end of the day, which makes the key for the rest of the week whether or not what was presumably a computer driven rally can be held onto into the weekend and then next week.

Corn Summary-
After trading to unchanged shortly before the close, corn futures managed to scratch out marginal gains on Wednesday as buyers saw Trump's mention of other ag products in his talks with Chinese President Xi as possibly including corn. We're not sure as to the validity in this as record production in the country would seem to limit a growth in imports in the short term, and we'd also note that the current export book doesn't have a ton of room for new business, with the US already shipping a record amount through almost the first half of the marketing year.

Soybean Summary-
The soy complex was higher across the board on Wednesday, with beans the upside leader on a Trump and Xi phone call that mentioned increased purchases of soybeans. Like most things with US-China, the wording was convoluted and up for interpretation, which is part of what has us asking whether or not the rally will hold into the weekend. Even if China acquiesces to Trump's request and goes ahead with the additional 8 MMTs in purchases between now and the end of August, keep in mind that this would still be the third lowest marketing year export total to the country in the last 20 years years behind only the two trade war years from Trump's first term.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures were unable to come along for the ride higher with the other markets on Wednesday and closed in the red on improving moisture outlooks for the US winter wheat belt and an otherwise lack of fresh news. Things are still cold in the Black Sea region, but most feel snowfall has been adequate enough in most areas to keep damage to a minimum, thus also likely contributing to the lower price action.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $1.30+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
As the last of yesterday's low pressure system exits the East Coast today, models continue to be in decent agreement on most of the Midwest remaining drier the rest of the week, before snows look to impact parts of MN/WI/MI in the north and then over through the northeast Thursday night into Friday. While this goes on, warmer air from the central US will continue trying to work east into the weekend and first part of next week, and will keep cooler air shoved mostly to the far East Coast.
While longer term temperature outlooks see this warmer pattern remaining in place into the back half of the month, they also show an increase in precip, with southwest flow expected to allow several systems to work over the Rocky Mountains, get moisture from the Gulf, and then slide back north and east through the Midwest, providing several chances at rain/snow over the next two weeks.
The mid-day GFS run is slightly drier for Argentina in the short term, but rains have begun falling here and the EU model, as well as some others, have held with the same wetter outlook seen the past several days. There are pockets that will likely be short-changed on rains over the next week, but there are also pockets through the heart of the ag region in the country that look to pick up a desperately needed 2-3". As has been the case all week, temperatures beyond the weekend have continued to trend cooler, which also aids in crop relief.
Aside from far southern Brazil, who likely stays dry for another week+, other areas look to continue to see normal rains into next week according to this afternoon's forecast runs, as there was again little change noted from previous days. Local harvest delays likely remain common, but the moisture is producing early-season yield results that are well up from last year.



Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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