Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Morning Markets: Corn -4.25 old & -2.25 new.
Beans -2 old & -0.25 new. Wheat -0.50.

MARKET SUMMARY:

Good morning. Commodity markets across the board are quiet/mixed to start Tuesday, with volume in the ag space continuing to be constrained on a lack of any fresh updates to the ongoing fundamental stories present over the past couple weeks. Traders appear to be fully settled in to 'hurry up and wait' mode, which has produced a noticeable lack of day-to-day excitement; like we mentioned yesterday, and several times over the past weeks, the calendar seems to be the most important factor in daily price discovery, as we must get through next week's tariff deadlines before any sort of trend can be developed in corn or soybeans. Stay patient, and don't assume this will be the case all the way through spring. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-15 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 10 points, and the US$ index is down around 20 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 35 points; gold futures are up $10-15/oz.

Crude Oil is up $0.43 at $69.54

US Dollar is down at $104.031

Global Equities: Japan +0.2%, China -2.4%, and Europe +1.1%

Dow futures are up 30 points at 42,928

Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%

EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.1% and Wheat +0.1%



WEATHER:

US weather forecasts overnight are mostly unchanged and continue to offer chances at precip for the eastern half of the country on and off over the next 10-15 days. Exact locations and amounts of rainfall will be somewhat difficult to predict due to the convective nature of most of the systems, but the EU's forecast this morning shows a corridor from MO/IA through IL, IN and into KY as the area most likely to receive the best precip amounts. Heavy rains will also be seen through the southern part of TX and into Mexico along the Gulf.
The EU's temperature forecast overnight showed cooler air in the northern part of the US than what was seen yesterday but was the only model to make such a shift; the GFS is still warm through the US and keeps that cooler air confined north of the border and into Canada.10–15-day maps continue to show much warmer than avg temps throughout the eastern US into April 9th, as generally speaking, temps will continue to be mostly above average.
Rainfall in Argentina was spottier on Tuesday than was seen through the weekend and on Monday, but there was still a small area in the south-central part of the country that picked up 0.5" to 1". Brazil also saw spotty moisture, with totals being even less in a 0.1" to 0.5" range. Forecasts though are mostly unchanged, with good rains still seen in Argentina's south over the next 5 days, and pockets of moisture through Brazil's growing areas. There will be areas in Brazil that are shortchanged on precip, which will need monitoring as we get into April.

OTHER HEADLINES:

The USDA released winter wheat progress data yesterday afternoon for select states; the data showed conditions in KS improved by 1% in the g/ex category in the week ending March 23rd, while conditions in TX improved 3% to 31% g/ex; CO also saw a 6% jump in the category to 66%. Crops in OK did not fare as well, as wind and dust caused a decline of 9% from the week prior to 37% g/ex. Of note, the regular weekly crop progress report is scheduled to resume two weeks from yesterday on April 7th.
Along similar lines, the EU's Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARs) in a report released yesterday indicated that the grain crops in the bloc are in "fairly good condition" and doing better than at this time last year. The group mentioned favorable weather conditions have allowed for timely seeding to this point, but added that weather over the next couple months and rest of the season could still impact conditions. Yields of soft wheat, winter barely, durum, and rapeseed are all expected to be higher year/year in 2025.
Conab's weekly crop progress update, also released late yesterday, showed soybean harvest in the country advancing to just over 76% complete as of Sunday, which continues to be ahead of both last year (66.3%) and the five-year avg (66.2%). Safrinha corn planting has advanced to 95.6% complete, compared to 96.8% last year and the five-year avg of 92%.
Staying in Brazil but jumping to a different sector, data from the country's Animal Protein Association showed that egg exports to the US in the month of February were nearly double the total seen last year, following a lowering of restrictions by the Trump administration in January to allow Brazilian eggs to be used for human-grade food processing as opposed to previously just being allowed in animal feed.
Financial markets look to be on the quiet side data-wise on Tuesday, as a handful of lower-importance number sets are all that are on the docket for this morning. Investors will have an eye/ear turned to any comments from President Trump also. He likely will continue making comments on his proposed duties that are set to go into effect next week.


EXPORT NEWS:

N/A

Be safe!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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