Thursday, January 16, 2025
Closing Markets: Corn -4.25 old & new.
Beans -23.75 old & -18.50 new. Wheat -9.

All TFG locations will be closed on Monday, January 20th in observation of Martin Luther King Jr. Day!!

Market Recap:

Good afternoon. Commodities sold off today. Grains closed the session weaker, led lower by the soy complex. SH notched a new low for the week during the session. Weather maps are mixed for S Brazil and Argentina, with the GFS model drier than the EU model, but the EU model has added better chances for scattered rainfall through the end of the January.

CH finished the day down 4 ¼¢ at $4.74 ½. WH dropped 9 ½¢ to $5.37 ½ and SH was down 23 ¾¢, ending the day at $10.19. Bean products also faltered, dropping below last week’s lows. March soymeal finished the day down $7.60/ton while March soy oil closed off 1.24¢ at 45.03. Livestock markets were lower. February live cattle started the morning steady but ran into heavy selling which drove the market down $1.92 ½ closing at $196.60. January feeders closed at $273.45, down $1.77 ½, and February hogs closed lower for the 2nd day in a row at $82.30, down 82 ½¢.

Outside markets are weaker. Nearby crude oil futures are down roughly $1.24 at $78.80 bbl, the Dow Jones index is down approximately 65 points, and the US$ index is moderately lower. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are both weaker. Interest rate markets are revising their outlook for a rate cut in March, currently pricing a 68% probability of no rate cut versus a 39% probability of no cut a month ago.

Along with the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, it is anticipated that the Houthi militia, which has been attacking vessels in the Red Sea, will cease further disruptions to regional shipping as the conflict in Gaza draws to a close. However, uncertainty persists, particularly with the incoming administration set to take office at the White House next week.

Spreads were mixed. CH/CK traded between -8 ¼ to -9 ¼. CK/CN traded a 1 ½¢ range between -2 ½ to -4. SH/SK traded -11 ¼ to -13 and WH/WK traded between – 11 ¼ and -12.

In the southern hemisphere, Agroconsult raised their 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast slightly to 172.4 MMT’s vs. their previous 172.2 MMT’s estimate. USDA is at 169.0 MMT’s. Agroconsult also kept bean plantings at 47.5 mln. hectares (117.4 mln. acres), marking Brazil’s largest ever soybean planted area. The Rosario Board of Trade, in their monthly report, said the drought in Argentina will prohibit soybean plants from reaching their production potential. While analysts refrained from decreasing their soy forecast of 53 MMT’s, they said the harvest would no doubt come in lower. They did, however, cut their corn forecast for Argentina to 48 MMT’s vs. their previous range of 50 to 51 MMT’s. This would be 3 MMT below USDA’s 51 MMT estimate.

This morning, private exporters reported sales of 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China and 135,000 mt of corn to Taiwan, both for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Weekly corn export sales came in at the high end of expectations at 40.3 mbu. Korea and Japan bought roughly 11 mbu and Mexico approximately 9 mbu. There were also cancellations of 16 mbu to unknown. Soybean export sales fell within trade expectations at 20.9 mbu. There were net cancellations of 16 mbu to China/unknown. Soyoil sales were above expectations. YTD commitments represent over 90% of USDA’s revised export forecast. Wheat export sales came in above expectations at 18.9 mbu. With 33 weeks remaining in the marketing year, corn sales are running roughly 65% of USDA's estimate and bean are running 82%. Wheat is 76% of USDA's annual forecast with 20 weeks remaining. With the Trump Administration set to take over early next week, traders will be closely monitoring potential higher tariffs with China and other key trading partners moving forward.

U.S. weather forecasts are little changed. Temperatures are expected to increase across much of the Midwest over the next couple of days followed by another cold front which will bring frigid temperatures through most of next week. Extended models are calling for colder-than-normal temperatures for the month of February.
Mid-day weather models for Argentina remain mixed. The 0z 5-day precipitation report shows the potential for rains across the central region of Argentina. For Brazil, conditions look to remains wet, with some additional scattered showers projected for S Brazil and Matto Grosso while rains across the central and northern growing regions look to be less frequent in week 2 of the outlook.



Have a good night!

Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com ... See MoreSee Less