Tuesday, July 07, 2020
Closing Markets: Corn -3 Old & -4 New. Beans -2 Old & -4 New. Wheat +2.
Market Recap:
Corn futures gave back Monday’s gains as the weather forecast looked wetter this morning. The two main weather models continue to have some disagreement on rainfall chances over the next few days. The American model (GFS) is wetter over the next two-week period, while the European model has been drier. It will be warm through most of this week before a brief cooling period happens over the weekend. Cells of rain continue to fire up around the Midwest, meaning some areas will see some rain to help alleviate the warm temps. The more general rains slated for this week are expected to favor the western states of Nebraska and Iowa. The crop progress report estimated corn ratings at 71% good to excellent, down 2% from last week. Reductions were noted in the east with Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan all being lowered in the good to excellent category. Iowa was steady with Minnesota up 1% to a very healthy 85% G&E. As for maturity, corn is 10% silking versus the average of 16%. The USDA will issue the July supply/demand report on Friday. The quarterly stocks and acreage report from June 30 will be the base for change in the monthly report. Old crop ending stocks are expected to be increased, while new crop stocks are set to be lowered due to smaller corn acres. Ethanol figures will be out tomorrow morning.
Soybeans finished weaker but held up better relative to corn. Bean ratings were held steady at 71% good to excellent. Lower ratings in the east were generally offset by better ratings in the west. Soybeans are 31% blooming, ahead of the 5-year average of 24%. Beans are 2% setting pods. The near-term weather forecast is more sensitive to corn at this moment than beans, which is why the added rain in today’s forecast had a more muted effect on bean futures. There were no additional Chinese bean purchase announcements today. Lower equity futures and crude oil seemed to weigh on commodities as well today.
Wheat futures bucked the neighboring trend and managed a higher close. Wheat harvest was estimated at 56% done versus the average of 55%. The latest Egypt wheat tender included all 230,000 tonnes coming from Russia. Spring wheat is rated 70% good to excellent, up 1% from last week.
Funds Daily
C -220,000 (-4,000); S +80,000 (-5,000); W -55,000 (+3,000); SM -35,000 (-4,000); BO -2,000 (+4,000)
Have a great evening!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. ... See MoreSee Less
3 hours ago
Tuesday, July 07, 2020
Morning Markets: Corn -3 Old & -4 New. Beans -1 Old & -2 New. Wheat +4.
MARKET SUMMARY:
As expected, the condition of the US corn and soybean crops held mostly steady on the week. Both crops are now rated 71% Good/Excellent, which remain high ratings for this time of year. This could easily change soon though as weather is turning stressful across much of the Corn Belt. The greatest impact is temperatures which are well above normal in many regions. Along with this heat is limited precipitation. This will be more of a factor on corn as that crop is now beginning its pollination stage of development. Supply and demand are always an underlying factor in the market, just some years it has more of an impact than others. In years such as this, we are seeing changes to these two washes each other out as we move through the growing season. We have started to see private analysts walk back their corn yields in recent weeks from less than ideal weather in parts of the Corn Belt. Normally this would receive a larger reaction in the market, but the sheer size of the corn crop that is being forecasted this year is tempering the reaction. We are also seeing some of the same analysts who are lowering corn yields lower corn demand as well. The main uses being scaled back are ethanol and exports. In the June balance sheets the USDA projected increases in ethanol demand of 300 million bu. and in exports of 375 million bu. We have not seen much for changes to soybean production this growing season, but same as in corn, we are starting to see more doubt over forecasted demand. For soybeans, the doubt is on exports which are expected to increase 400 million bu. from this year to next.
Crude Oil is up $0.06 at $40.71.
US Dollar is down $0.259 at $96.913.
Global Equities: Japan +1.6%, China +3.8%, and Europe +1.5%.
Dow futures is up 375 points at 26,134.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.2% and Wheat no change.
Malaysian Palm Oil: +1.4%.
Dalian: Corn +0.4%, Soybeans -1.2%, Meal +1.0%.
WEATHER:
• The overnight models are now discounting the idea of a long-lasting ridge. Erratic thunderstorms will develop this week, favoring the southwestern corner of the Corn Belt from eastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri.
• The overnight GFS model paints a wetter outlook for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest into the middle of and later days of next week. The 10-day outlook paints the heaviest rains from E NE thru IA and into N IL. Very little rain is expected across the Southern Plains.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• WEEKLY EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Corn loadings: 962,000 mt vs trade estimates of 1,000,000 – 1,300,000. Shipped 76% of USDA estimate vs 78% average. Soybean loadings: 522,000 mt vs trade estimates of 300,000 - 500,000. Shipped 83% of USDA estimate vs 87% average.
• France's soft wheat production is expected to fall by almost 21% this year after crops suffered from adverse weather conditions. In its first forecast of this year's soft wheat crop, the ministry projected production at 31.3mmt compared with 39.6 in 2019 and 12% below average.
• Egypt’s GASC is in for wheat. Their last tender was 2.5 weeks ago where they bot
240,000 mt of Russian, Romanian, and Ukrainian wheat at $218 C&F. Look for a
lower trade.
• ProAgro has cut its forecast for Ukraine's 2020 wheat harvest to 26.1mmt from 26.7 a month ago due to poor weather, representing a near 8% fall year-on-year. Corn production was forecast at 38.5mmt, +7% from last year.
EXPORT NEWS:
• N/A
Have a great day!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. ... See MoreSee Less
9 hours ago
