Monday, June 16, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn -6 old & -5.25 new.
Beans +4.25 old & +6 new. Wheat -8.25.

MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag markets are mixed this morning to start off the new week of trade at the CBOT, with the grain and meal markets trading in the red and the soybean and soybean oil markets trading in the green. Following Friday's limit-up move in the oil, buying continued into Sunday evening as the July contract saw a sizeable gap-higher open last night that sent the July contract to new highs for the move and to its highest level since late-2023. As far as today goes, this likely remains the number one talking point at least to start the week, with their still being several questions regarding US biofuel outlook and domestic bean oil use. Otherwise, this afternoon's crop progress updates after the close will be the other main talking point for Monday/Tuesday, with further improvements expected across both crops. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is up around 3.20 cents/lb. Outside are mixed to start the week, crude oil futures are down around 90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 240 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is up 40 points and the NASDAQ is up 160 points. Crude oil also gapped higher on the open last night but has not traded outside of Friday's range so far this morning.



Crude Oil is down $0.89 at $72.09
US Dollar is down at $97.540
Global Equities: Japan -0.1%, China +0.0%, and Europe +0.6%
Dow futures are up 243 points at 42,450
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%

WEATHER:
Weekend rains were scattered across the Midwest over the past few days, with 72-hour satellite data showing accumulation of a couple tenths to 1.5" through the northern Corn Belt (Dakota's/MN/IA/WI), while the southern Midwest saw a more widespread 1-2" of rainfall. Noticeable holes were seen through parts of eastern NE/KS and then also in northern IL/southern WI.
For this week, forecasts see continued scattered precip impacting the eastern half of the US through the day on Monday and Tuesday, while a more defined low-pressure system is then seen working through the mid-section of the US later this week on Wednesday/Thursday. Total combined precip, according to the European model, through the end of the week is seen between 0.1-1" for the most part, with a few corridors of heavier rains of up to 3" possible in the north and along areas of the lower Mississippi.
Not a lot new as far as the temperature forecast goes for the Midwest coming out of the weekend, as the bulk of the area sees a warmup this week to more summer-like temps. The only real change of note was in the west, where models now see below average temperatures generally west of the Rockies beginning late this week and lasting into next week as the western US ridge works east and allows cooler air to fill in behind it. We talked about it last week, but how this ridge progresses and the duration for which it hangs out over the Corn Belt are by far the biggest forecast concerns in the short term.

OTHER HEADLINES:
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will release updated soybean crush and soybean oil stocks figures for the month of May later this morning at 11am central time. The report is expected to show May soy crush at 193.5 mil bu, which if accurate, would be a new record for the month and up more than 5% from the figure seen in May of 2024. Bean oil stocks as of the end of the month are estimated at 1.451 bil lbs, which would be down 5% from April and down more than 15% from May of last year.
While there are still a lot of question marks surrounding Friday's EPA announcement, the proposal, at least initially, seems like a win for US farmers. If approved, the new legislation would see oil refiners blend more than 24 billion gallons of of biofuels into conventional diesel and gasoline in 2026, which would be up nearly 8% from the requirement in 2025. What happens with small refiner exemptions (SRE's) remains the biggest question in the short term, though the EPA has said a decision will be made on this before the blend mandates are finalized.
Furthermore, the proposal would halve the number of RIN's (renewable identification numbers) available to biofuels that are imported or made domestically from imported feedstocks, which means those gallons would only generate half the credits that domestic counterparts would. Data shows roughly 45% of US biomass-based diesel and the feedstocks used to make it were imported in 2024.
According to the USDA, federally inspected beef production in the week ending June 14th totaled 485 mil lbs, which was down more than 4% from last week and down nearly 7% from the same week last year; pork production in the week though at 514 mil lbs was up a little over 1% from last week and up 0.6% from the same week last year. For the year, beef production is down 2.9% from last year, and pork production is down 1.7%.
Tensions are continuing to boil in the Middle East this morning, as news outlets are reporting fresh missile strikes from Iran on the Israeli port city of Haifa before the sun was up this morning. Iran told mediators Qatar and Oman over the weekend it had no interest in negotiating a ceasefire so long as Israeli attacks were still occurring, which stoked fears of further escalation in the conflict. Sources also say US President Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Iran's Supreme Leader over the weekend, but Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said these conversations never occurred.
Staying on the subject, the conflict also looks to be one of the main talking points at this week's G7 economic summit in Canada, as global leaders will discuss how to avoid a further escalation in tensions as the meeting gets into its second day on Monday. New sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine are also likely to be discussed at this week's meetings, with some thinking that EU leaders will press ahead on this front.
Other happenings in the global financial space this week include rate decisions from a slew of central banks, including Japan, England, Switzerland, and the US. Economists see rates being held steady in both Japan and the UK, while the Swiss National Bank is expected to drop rates back to zero for the first time since late-2022. For the US, the CME's FedWatch tool this morning is showing a 99.8% chance that US interest rates will also be held unchanged this week.

EXPORT NEWS:
N/A


Be safe!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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