Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Morning Markets: Corn -3. Beans -5. Wheat -9.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Even with questionable global production, the United States is being pressured by cheaper corn and soybean offers. The most notable of these is from Brazil on soybeans which is not a surprise given the start of their harvest of a record crop. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be nearly 30% greater than last year which is contributing to the record world supply. This is negating all worry in the world market over the tight ending stocks in the US. Brazilian soybeans are currently being offered at a 50 to 75 cent per bushel discount to the US. Brazilian meal offers are well under the US as well. Brazil corn offers for summer shipment are also at a discount to the US. Ukraine corn offers are also under the US, but their supply is being questioned. The most surprise on corn is from Argentina where even with a smaller crop being projected, offers for spring shipment are at a 10-15 cent per bushel discount to the US. The United States is also seeing competition from alternative grains in the global market such as feed wheat. Traditional buyers of US corn such as Japan and South Korea have recently increased their feed wheat purchases which is not helping us overcome our already depressed corn sales pace.
Crude Oil is down $0.78 at $77.12.
U.S. Dollar is up $0.025 at $102.423.
Global Equities: Japan -0.4%, China -1.0%, and Europe -0.6%
Dow futures is down 122 points at 33,663.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.6%, and Wheat -0.5%
WEATHER:
• The U.S. weather looks cold for another day or so with the extended forecast showing above normal temps for the eastern half of the U.S.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• A top investor in Green Plains Inc is calling for the biofuel producer to run a full sales process at a time when the company is facing increased risks and strategic buyers are eager to purchase renewable energy companies. Ancora Holdings Group, which owns a nearly 7% stake and is Green Plains' second largest shareholder, sent a letter, seen by Reuters, to the board on Tuesday arguing a buyer would likely pay at least $50 a share for the company. Green Plains' stock closed trading at $31.05 on Monday and has climbed 7.4% this year. "Our analysis and diligence indicate that strategic buyers with considerable cash on their balance sheets could be interested in acquiring the Company at a significant premium to current trading prices," the letter said.
• Parched winter wheat in the U.S. Plains has received well above average precipitation this month and drought levels have improved since last fall, but crop health has not yet made a significant recovery. Nationally, U.S. winter wheat conditions at the end of November were nearly the worst ever for the date, and updated state reports on Monday confirm that the wheat heavy Plains are still in need of cooperative weather going forward to avoid yield losses like last year. Winter wheat condition in top grower Kansas is 21% good or excellent (GE), identical to late November but up 2 points from the start of January. Texas GE totals 14%, up from 11% a week earlier, but down from 21% two months ago.
• China's sow herd increased by 0.6% in December from November to 43.9 million sows, data published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed on Tuesday. The herd was also 1.4% larger than a year ago, the data showed. China's pig herd increased by 1.9% in December from the month before to 452.6 million pigs, according to the data, and was 0.7% larger than the previous year.
• Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities announced a tender on Tuesday for the purchase of wheat within the framework of the Food Security and Resilience Support Program funded by the World Bank under Loan No. EG -9399 with at sight financing.
• India's rice exports in 2022 jumped to a record high despite the government's curbs on overseas sale, as buyers continued to make purchases from the South Asian country because of competitive prices, according to government and industry officials. The record exports allowed Asian and African countries to import the staple at a time when supplies of wheat and other grains were hit by drought and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. India, the world's biggest rice exporter, in September banned exports of broken rice and slapped a 20% export tax on some non-basmati varieties as erratic monsoons cut production. India's rice exports in 2022 rose 3.5% from a year ago to 22.26 million tonnes, or more than the combined exports of the next four largest exporters Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and United States, a top government official told Reuters.
• Raw sugar futures rose on Monday to their highest level in nearly six years, as worries about tight supplies mounted on a diminishing outlook for production in India.
EXPORT NEWS:
• N/A
Have a wonderful day!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
... See MoreSee Less
