Tuesday, September 27, 2022
Morning Markets: Corn +10. Beans +14. Wheat +33.
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MARKET SUMMARY:
Weekly data shows harvest is starting to progress across the United States. As of Sunday 12%, of the US corn crop was harvested compared to the average 14%. Soybean harvest reached 8% with the normal amount being 13%. The corn crop rating slipped 3% on the week while soybeans held steady. Winter wheat planting came in just under the average trade guess at 31% complete but is above normal. The crop is 9% emerged though which is 3 points above average. Corn harvest is roughly 10 days behind normal which is concerning for cash buyers who have been waiting for new crop inventory. Farmers are opting to leave corn in the field, if possible, to dry down naturally rather than pay high fees for commercial drying. Given weather outlooks that are showing little threat to crops we may see a prolonged harvest this year as a result. If correct this will keep basis values firm, primarily at end users where coverage is needed. A stretched-out harvest would also prevent logistic issues at most interior terminals. The outside markets will continue to affect commodity trade today, mainly the value of the US dollar. We will start to see more positioning for Friday’s quarterly stocks report in the next few sessions. We also need to remember that Friday is quarter end, and this will impact trade as well.
Crude Oil is down $0.74 at $78.00
US Dollar is up $0.449 at $113.641
Global Equities: Japan -2.7%, China -0.4%, and Europe -0.1%
Dow futures is down 173 points at 29,496
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -1.0%, and Wheat -1.2%
Malaysian Palm Oil: -5.1%
Dalian: Corn -1.9%, Soybeans -0.7%, Meal -1.1%
WEATHER:
• The weather looks clear across most of the Midwest, which should aid in activity harvest progress. Temps will feel more fall-like, but no real freezes are forecasted at this point. Hurricane Ian is approaching Cuba and is expected to move up through Florida later this week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• The U.S. Department of Agriculture is proposing regulations to prevent meat companies from retaliating against livestock and poultry farmers who speak out on practices such as price-fixing, the agency said on Monday. The USDA also said it would work with state attorneys general to investigate anticompetitive practices in the agricultural sector that contribute to inflation. The moves aim to increase competition in the highly concentrated meat industry as part of a broader effort by the Biden administration.
• US ethanol reserves largest since 2019.
• Gas and fuel costs continue to rise, US travel shows signs of slowing.
• Mexico asked to revisit their non-GMO stance.
• Feds are firm on 2% inflation target. Feds may be raising interest too fast.
• Ukraine on Monday urged the European Union to support its plans to make the emergency paths for grain exports through the bloc permanent, with investment in at least five border terminals and a pipeline through which sunflower oil would flow. Ukraine's agriculture minister Mykola Solsky told EU counterparts and the European Commission his country needed financial support to reduce its reliance on Black Sea exports that Russia had blocked and could hinder again.
• The European Union's crop monitoring service MARS on Monday raised its projections for Russia's 2022 wheat crop to a new record high but lowered its grain maize crop forecast to take account of hot and dry summer weather. In a report, MARS estimated the Russian wheat harvest at 95.0 million tonnes, up from 88.8 million seen in its previous estimate in June, and now 25% above last year. That included 70.2 million tonnes of winter wheat, up 31% on last year, and 24.8 million tonnes of spring wheat, up 10%. The revised wheat crop forecast was still below those released by leading Russian analysts, including the Sovecon consultancy, which last week raised its forecast for Russia's 2022 wheat crop to 100 million tonnes from 94.7 million tonnes due to high yields of spring wheat.
• China's state planner said on Tuesday it will release its fourth batch of pork reserves for the month this week, as average retail pork prices last week were 30% higher than a year ago. The state sales come ahead of China's week-long National Day holiday beginning on Oct. 1, typically a period of high pork consumption.
• Germany's farmers are ordering less fertilizer, put off by soaring costs after major suppliers of synthetic plant nutrients have curtailed production, the country's statistics office said on Monday. Imports of fertilizer into Germany are also on the decline, the office said, indicating that farmers and fertilizer traders have not found cheaper outlets abroad. Across domestic and foreign sources, German farmers and traders purchased 238,000 tonnes of nitrogen fertilizer during the April-to-June quarter, down 18.5% from a year earlier and down 25% from the first quarter.
EXPORT NEWS:
• N/A
Have a wonderful day!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
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