Tuesday, August 11, 2020
Morning Markets: Corn +2 Old & New. Beans EVEN Old & New. Wheat +4.
MARKET SUMMARY:
The rating of the US corn and soybean crop was little changed from a week ago, which is in line with what trade was expecting. The US corn crop rating declined 1 point and now stands at 71% Good/Excellent. The US soybean crop rating improved 1% to now stand at 73% G/E. Even with a slight decline on corn, these ratings are some of the highest in history for this time of year. These ratings are also why most traders think the crops will be larger than previously thought in tomorrow's WASDE report. The question now is what may happen next week after yesterday's storms moved through the Midwest bringing high winds and reports of flat corn fields. Given the start of harvest in some parts of the Deep South, actual field collected data will soon start to replace condition reports on a whole. Most of the today's session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow's WASDE release. For the most part, analysts are expecting to see an increase in production and ending stocks. The anticipation of this data has been pressuring the market in recent sessions, and hopes are the release of the numbers will bring an end to recent selling. Given the volume of the market leaning towards a negative return, even neutral numbers could end up being friendly.
Crude Oil is up $0.63 at $42.57.
US Dollar is down $0.321 at $93.261.
Global Equities: Japan +2.5%, China +2.1%, and Europe +2.3%.
Dow futures is up 273 points at 27,952.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.2% and Wheat +0.4%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: -2.4%.
Dalian: Corn +0.1%, Soybeans +0.7%, Meal -0.4%.
WEATHER:
• The overnight GFS model turned noticeably cooler for the Northern Plains and Corn Belt, starting this weekend, and lasting through most of next week. The models also turned wetter for IA and the southwest portions of the Belt into the middle of next week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• Corn conditions: 71% good to excellent vs 72% last week and 72% expected. Soybean conditions: 74% good to excellent vs 73% last week and 72% expected.
• The average trade estimate for the Aug WASDE report has the US corn crop at 15.174 bb, up 174 mb from the July report as yield is projected to increase to 180.5bpa vs 178.5 in July. The average trade estimate for the soybean crop pegs production at 4.254 bb, up 119 mb from the July report. Yield is estimated to come in near 51.2bpa vs 49.8bpa in July.
• A storm packing hurricane-force winds tore across the U.S. Midwest on Monday, causing widespread property damage in cities and rural towns and leaving more than half a million homes and businesses without power. Winds as high as 100 miles per hour hit eastern Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and parts of Illinois in the widespread storm classified as a "derecho" by the National Weather Service.
• China's WH Group expects pork exports from the United States to China to fall in the second half of 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic hit volumes being handled at U.S. processing plants and pushed up prices. China's pork imports have surged in the first half, with arrivals from the United States especially high.
EXPORT NEWS:
• USDA says 132,000mt of soybeans sold to China for 2020/21.
Have a great day!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. ... See MoreSee Less
18 hours ago
Monday, August 10, 2020
Closing Markets: Corn +3 Old & New. Beans +6 Old & New. Wheat -4.
Market Recap:
Corn futures ended the day higher on bargain buying, although gains were limited as the potential for a large U.S. corn crop continues to loom over the market. The forecast remains mostly non-threatening for most of the Midwest. Both NOAA’s 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day outlook maps suggest normal to below normal temps, with above normal precipitation expected for the southern 3rd of the Corn Belt with normal precipitation expected for the balance of the Belt. Locally there is the chance for some strong storms this afternoon across central Illinois. Recent reports indicate wind damage is likely in parts of eastern IA and northern IL this afternoon, as several reports of winds gusts in excess of 70 mph have been reported from central IA. Traders will be closely monitoring this afternoon’s crop progress/condition ratings. Last week, NASS estimated the U.S. corn rating at 72% good to excellent. Market participants are expecting conditions to hold steady or decline slightly this afternoon. This morning’s weekly corn export inspections were a solid 45.3 mln. bu. This was a sharp increase from the previous week and the 2nd highest total in the last 6 weeks.
Soybeans ended the day higher. Bean futures found support from new flash sales announcements this morning. USDA reported nearly 600,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China for delivery in the 20/21 marketing year, with another 111,000 tons being sold to unknown destinations for the same time. Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections were just over 23 mln. bu. this morning, marking their highest total since late February. Despite the uptick, bean exports continue to run below the weekly total “needed” to meet USDA’s annual export projection. Of the total, only 2 cargoes were destined for China, leaving just under 3 MMT of beans left to ship to this marketing year to clean up their current old crop purchases. Traders continue to monitor relations between the U.S. & China. Trade talks are set to take place this coming Saturday with the main topic being the Phase 1 agreement and what progress has been made, as volumes continue to fall short of expectations. Market participants will also be closely monitoring this afternoon’s crop progress & condition ratings. Last week, NASS estimated the U.S. soybean rating at 73% good to excellent. The trade is expecting to see conditions hold steady or decline slightly this afternoon.
Crop Conditions- Corn came in at 71% down 1 point from last week and in line with expectations. Soybeans came in at 74% good to excellent condition, up 1 point from last week and in line with expectations.
Have a great evening!!!!
Chelsey White
Emery Manager & Originator:: Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc.
593 Emery Rd :: Maroa, IL 61756
Phone:: 217-794-2240
E-Mail:: cwhite@tfgrain.com
Web:: www.topflightgrain.com
This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. ... See MoreSee Less
1 day ago
