Monday, November 11, 2019

Morning Markets: Corn -3. Beans -7. Wheat -4.

MARKET SUMMARY:
Trade was pressured overnight from several factors, including harvest activity, ongoing reaction to last Friday's WASDE report, and an announcement from US officials that tariffs will not be rolled back on Chinese products, which again causes doubt over the entire deal. There is little doubt trade will continue to sift through last Friday's supply and demand report numbers during today's session. The number that is receiving the most attention is the 15 million bu. increase to soybean reserves. This put ending stocks at a comfortable 475 million bu., 30 million more than the average trade guess. Trade was caught more off guard by this than the fact corn carryout was basically unchanged at 1.9 billion bu. Before we get too worked up over these, we need to remember that harvest is still taking place and there is plenty of time for changes to take place to all figures. Unfortunately, we will not see these until the January WASDE report when final production numbers are published. Until then, trade will continue to monitor day to day harvest reports for price discovery. There is little doubt that any updates on US trade relations with China will have an impact on market values as well. Weather models indicate an open week for harvest in much of the Corn Belt. While this may pressure futures, it is doubtful it will have much impact on basis given the slow selling we have seen in recent weeks. In fact, basis values have steadily improved in many areas even with harvest taking place.
Crude Oil is down $0.82 at $56.42.
US Dollar is down $0.086 at $98.267.
Global Equities: Japan +0.1%, China -2.6% and Europe -0.2%.
Dow futures up 6 points at 27,681.
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.2% and Wheat -0.7%.
Malaysian Palm Oil: +2.2%.

WEATHER:
• The central U.S. forecast is cold for the next 6-7 days with record low temps likely across certain areas of the Corn Belt. The 10-15-day forecast shows a warmer profile.

OTHER HEADLINES:
• The weekly crop progress report will be delayed until tomorrow due to today’s Veteran’s holiday. We expect soy harvest to be near 90% complete and corn harvest to be near 66-68% complete. US winter wheat ratings are likely to remain unchanged at 57% rated good to excellent.
• President Trump on Friday said he has not agreed to rollbacks of U.S. tariffs sought by China, sparking fresh doubts about when the world's two largest economies may end a 16-month trade war that has slowed global growth. On Thursday, officials from both countries said China and the U.S. had agreed to roll back tariffs on each other’s' goods in a "phase one" trade deal. Although, the idea of tariff rollbacks met with stiff opposition within the Trump administration.
• Friday’s COT report showed that funds are net short 654 Chicago wheat (up 5,696 contracts) and 104,846 contracts of corn (up 19,509). Funds are long 58,429 contracts of soybeans (down 13,896 contracts). In soy products, funds are short 37,554 contracts of soymeal (up 8,504 contracts) and long 84,643 contracts of soy oil (up 9,8290 contracts).
• Brazil and Argentina crop areas do have pockets of dry conditions, but weather models show a more normal rainfall pattern into the last week of November.
• Cargill retendered 655 of the SX19 certs they stopped, and COFCO registered and issued another 200 contracts. The SX/F is off 1^0 trading -12^4 this morning. COFCO is apparently willing to feed CRG as many certs as they want.
• China has approved 6 new Argentine slaughterhouses and processing plants to handle an increased amount of beef that China may need to import due to ASF.

EXPORT NEWS:

• N/A

Have a great day!!!!

Chelsey White
Emery Branch Manager/Originator || Topflight Grain Coop
593 Emery Rd.
Maroa, Il 61756
217-794-2240
E-Mail: cwhite@topflightgrain.com

This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. Topflight Grain is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Topflight Grains designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Topflight Grain Cooperative, Inc. ... See MoreSee Less

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