Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -5.
Beans: -5.25. Wheat: -12.
State Bank of Bement will be passing out Harvest Bags TOMORROW! 10/21 from 1:30pm-3:30pm in Bement

Good evening!

Market Recap-
Losing streaks were extended across the ag space Tuesday, with an overnight rally failing into the day session on further long liquidation by the funds and an ongoing lack of any sort of offsetting bullish input. While boring, it was largely the same type of trade that was had to start the week yesterday, as markets are searching for a seasonal bottom amid good harvest progress and a good start to the season planting-wise in South America.

Trivia: What was the first commercially sold bubble gum? (answer below)

Corn Summary-
It was a slow news day in the corn market, with prices lower on more ongoing long liquidation by the funds and little new otherwise. Harvest progress yesterday afternoon maybe wasn't quite as far along as most had expected, but forecasts would lead one to believe pace will pick up this week. While the farmer selling hasn't been overly the heavy the last couple days, this could keep a lid on any sort of sizeable upside price action short term, though we still think seasonal bottoms should be closer to being formed than not. Remember, there is still quite a bit of risk both geopolitically and from El Niño, and we imagine the funds aren't going to fully liquidate their long position so long as that's the case.

Soybean Summary-
Soybean oil was able to barely hold onto early morning energy market strength on Tuesday, but the beans and meal again closed lower on more fund liquidation. Part of the reason funds were long the bean market all summer in the first place was that they were optimistic China's buying would end up being larger than anticipated. Now, most feel that their buying is largely known for the most part at least into January, and this, along with a good start to planting in Brazil, has had funds getting out of long positions over the last couple weeks. Similar to the conversation had with corn we would see the demand situation as limiting managed money from entirely exiting their long position, but this could change should it start to appear as though global trade will shift to Brazil again in January/February.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures saw the biggest losses of the group Tuesday, as long liquidation in the other markets has translated to selling in the wheat space. Funds were using the wheat as the short leg of spreads previously, but now seem to be just wanting to be short the market in general despite there being nothing new on the war and there still questions related to El Niño and its effect on weather in the southern hemisphere. We talked about the possibility for a counter seasonal bottom yesterday later in November ahead of December deliveries, and gains in open interest so far this week, presumably in that December contract, would lend further justification to this idea.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.20+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Warm, dry weather looks to remain the story for the Midwest this week, with forecasts little changed in the last 24 hours and still showing a wide open harvest window for most of the area over the next 10+ days. High pressure over the eastern US looks to keep daytime highs on the warmer side of average for this time of year, limiting any sort of near term frost risk, and will also keep rainfall to the north and west at least into the first part of next week.
Our confidence isn't high, but today's EU model is bringing a trough into the eastern US the 29th/30th/31st to end the month that would bring about an end to the current set up. This feature has the week-two precip anomaly maps wetter in the east than they were yesterday, but the model had this system further north and east in yesterday's forecast, which is the reason for the low confidence.
If there's an area of concern in South America today its northern Brazil, as El Niño has largely kept this part of the country dry. While a benefit for planting pace, the region will desire better moisture to show up in November and December to help crop development. Otherwise, it’s still too wet in the far south, but the central part of the country has been nearly ideal, with a good mix of rain and sun.
Argentina still sees little if any issues with its forecast into the end of the month, as rains are expected to continue impacting most of the southern 2/3s of the country while areas in the north are drier but not completely absent of rainfall.

Answer: “Dubble Bubble.” Invented in 1928, priced at a penny a piece. $1.5 million in sales surpassed within the first year.


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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