Thursday, February 12, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +3.75 old & +4.25 new.
Beans: +13.25 old & +5.75 new. Wheat: +15.25.
All TFG locations will be closed Monday, February 16th for Presidents’ Day!
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.
We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good thru August 31, 2026.
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Markets closed in the green across much of the CBOT on Thursday, with soybeans and wheat leading the way on what ended up being a rather strong session despite not a lot of fresh groundbreaking news. With just one more session left in the week this week, key for tomorrow will be whether or not profit taking emerges throughout the day or if buying stays active ahead of the three-day weekend.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures continued their back and forth for the week on Thursday, finishing higher and scoring new highs for the last few days on fund short covering and spill-over buying from the wheat market that crept into the market throughout the morning. The minor cut from CONAB was helpful, but attention as it pertains to South American corn is focused on Argentina, where the range of production estimates from several reputable sources including the USDA and the BAGE is quite wide. An Argy crop of 60+ MMTs hits the world balance sheet quite a bit harder than the 53 MMTs being forecast by the USDA, and certainly makes up for any one or two million ton cuts out of Brazil in the next couple months.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures saw a gap-higher open last night and scored new highs for the week before finishing the day higher on Thursday. Product markets were also higher, as bean oil scored another round of new contract highs and meal also made new highs for the move. Positive sentiment was mostly again the result of happenings with China and headlines regarding the situation, though we have no better answer today as to whether Xi is going to make good on Trump's request for an additional 8 million tons of purchases than we did yesterday. We continue repeating it, but the bottom line for soybean prices is that Brazil has a massive crop that is priced to move; China has very little, if any, reason outside of politics to buy beans from the US, and if they don't, current export forecasts from the USDA are probably too high and ending stocks will probably work higher without a weather issue into the back half of the marketing year.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures saw another strong day on Thursday, with spot futures testing the 200-day moving average on the charts for the first time since last June on ongoing short covering and technical buying. Russian export prices have worked steadily higher this week, but otherwise, we're struggling to find much again today to point to in terms of fundamentals for the pop. With carries lessening in the spreads, fund traders who are still sitting on shorts are seeing less and less reason to roll positions forward, which is leading to them exit positions and thereby cause prices to go up.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $1.70+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Not a lot new to discuss on the weather front this afternoon, with models continuing to hone in on the coming low pressure system expected to impact the southeast and mid-south this weekend and into the early part of next week. Rainfall totals continue to be seen in a range of a half inch to an inch in the lesser areas, while areas in/around Arkansas look to see totals in the 1-3" range.
Precip forecasts in the week two period were again little changed today like previous days this week, but temperature forecasts saw a slightly warmer shift in the central and west-central US compared to what has been seen the rest of the week this week as colder arctic is pushed back north into Canada. The GFS is warmer than the EU, but both have pushed cold air back north compared to recent runs.
This afternoon's GFS model run has rains continuing for northern Argentina into the weekend, before better moisture then moves south and back into the primary ag regions through the weekend and into next week. The model still sees several rounds of moisture then through the week next week and into the following weekend, but it will be critical that these rains materialize.
Central Brazil looks to see a few days of drier weather now into next week, as a slight pattern shift should allow harvest to progress more normally here while rains move south into the drier regions of southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Rains look to fill back in then the following week, but our confidence in the forecast beyond the six or seven days is not high due to the shifting MJO.
Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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