Friday, October 23, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -4.50.
Beans: +3.50. Wheat: +0.25.

Good evening!

Trivia: Bob Barker hosted The Price is Right for how many years? (answer below)

Market Recap-
Happy Friday. The end of the week did little to change the quiet/choppy nature of the markets up until this point, with market action Friday much the same as it’s been the rest of the week this week. That said, commentary today will be a lot of repeats from previous days this week, but we can't stress enough the impact long liquidation has had on price direction lately. From a fundamental standpoint, there's still a long growing season ahead in South America that must contend with El Niño and there's also a pair of wars still going on across the globe that, despite diplomatic efforts recently, don't look to end any time soon. We would caution against trying to too heavily press the downside from here and still think seasonal lows should be closer to being in than not.

Corn Summary-
The corn market finished near its lows for the week on Friday, with little in the way of fresh input and generally not a lot of excitement as harvest activity has been about the only thing new this week. The USDA's loosening of the corn balance sheet over the last several weeks and the ensuing long liquidation have pushed seasonal bottoms back a bit, but there's enough risk still present via El Niño, the global geopolitical situation, and inflation that we would expect prices to see some sort of up move, even if it is just corrective, between now and the end of the year. We can't rule out a push to new lows next week as harvest really hits about max pace, but we would expect it to be a rather quick affair from here to the finish line as long as forecasts over the next two weeks generally verify and we also don't anticipate funds wanting to fully liquidate their net-long position still. Bearish momentum should slow into the end of the month.

Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures finished the week quietly in the green, building on yesterday's gains a bit amid a gradual wind down of harvest activity and as there continues to be little in the way of new market-specific news. Meanwhile, the products closed quietly mixed on either side of unchanged, which was notable due to strength in the crude oil market being unable to really impact bean oil prices which hasn't been the case throughout most of the rest of the week. Crude oil above $100/bbl provides underlying support to bean oil futures on the margin, but it's worth noting when discussing the current situation with the products that spot crush margins have fallen nearly $2.00 a bushel from the tops made over the summer. Margins are still north of the $2.00 mark, which is by no means poor, but history shows that when price spikes like those seen this year happen, they don't often last and are usually followed by fairly sharp corrections.

Wheat Summary-
Spot wheat futures scratched and clawed their way to a one tick higher close on Friday, with this being the only sort of upside momentum the space could muster for the whole week. Headlines touting peace prospects in the Black Sea, whether substantial or not, had the trade on the defensive from the word go on Monday and sort of hung over the market all week. Until proven otherwise, we will remain in the camp that the Black Sea situation doesn't get resolved in the short term as there just doesn't seem to be a lot of reason for the two sides to give in today. Russia wants to occupy more than 25% of Ukraine as it stands today and Ukraine has been having enough success with long-range drones to at least continue dragging the conflict on until some world leader can talk Putin into a better deal. In the meantime, the world is left to try and make up for the lost supply, which has been a fairly successful endeavor to this point.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $4.00/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Will keep weather comments short this afternoon, as much of the Midwest is going to rinse and repeat weather compared to recent days this week. Temperatures look to stay above average, while precip remains limited to non-existent.
Rainfall then works back into the western part of the region Saturday and into Sunday and expands through the week next week, but forecasts today show the moisture limited to far western KS, NE and then into SD and MN. Generally speaking though, the bulk of the Corn Belt, especially in the east, sees limited rain chances into at least next weekend as high pressure ridging remains in place.
There continue to be questions then on the forecast further out into November, as the anomaly maps are similar to previous days this week in showing wetter biases throughout most of the country, but the model rainfall maps show dryness lingering in the eastern US through at least the first week of the month. Due to the differences, confidence in the forecast beyond next week is low.
Rainfall maps trended wetter again on Friday for most all of Brazil besides the far north, where dryness continues to be a budding concern as we get further into the growing season. Wet conditions in the south also don't look to end anytime soon, but the rest of the country is in a pretty good spot today on moisture. Moisture throughout Brazil becomes a more important market factor over the next 6-8 weeks, as rainfall totals in November and December correlate fairly well with the country's soybean production.
Outside of lingering cooler temperatures, Argentina also doesn't see a lot of weather concern at present, with rainfall generally adequate throughout most of the country and there no sign in the short term forecast that this changes into the first part of November.

Answer: 35 years


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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