Friday, May 16, 2025

Closing Markets: Corn -5 old & -3.25 new.
Beans -1.25 old & +0.25 new. Wheat -7.75.

Market Recap:

Good afternoon! Happy Friday. Ag markets ended the week on a softer note at the Board of Trade on Friday, with corn and soybean futures closing lower, the wheat market giving back what it gained on Thursday, and the product markets again seeing volatile price action for a majority of the session before also closing in the red. Aside from ongoing rhetoric surrounding US biofuel policy and government blending mandates, there was an overall lack of new information for traders to chew on throughout the day.



CN ended the week at 4.43 and 1/2, down 5 cents. CZ was down 3 and 1/4 at 4.35 and 1/2. Outside day lower for CN. SN finished at 10.50, down a penny and a quarter. SX closed at 10.35 and 1/2, up 1/4 of a cent. Inside day for SN. WN closed at 5.25, down 7 and 3/4. Products ended the week in the red, July soybean meal closed at 291.90, down $4.50/ton, and July soybean oil closed at 48.93, down 39 points. Oil gapped lower again on the open last night but managed to fill that gap by the end of the day session. Cattle markets closed higher on Friday, with June live cattle at 212.22, up $1.05, and August feeders at 297.60, up $1.77. June hogs closed the week at 100.32, down 37 cents. Hogs made new highs for the week this morning before closing lower. Outside markets are trading mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 330 points, and the US$ index is up 25-35 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points. Inside day for crude oil, outside day for the $, and the S&P and the Dow made new highs for the week. Gold futures are $30-40/oz lower.



Spreads were mostly lower to end the week, with corn spreads unchanged to down a penny and 3/4 and soybean spreads up a penny and 1/4 to down a penny and a half. CN/CU closed at 22, down a penny and a half, and SN/SQ closed at 3 and 3/4, down 1/4 of a cent. New contract lows for the third day this week in the CU/CZ at -14 and 1/4.



For the week: July corn was down 6 and 1/4 cents; December corn was down 6 and 1/2 cents; July soybeans were down a penny and 3/4 cents; November soybeans were up 5 cents; July Chicago wheat was up 4 and 1/4 cents; July soybean meal was down $2.20/ton; and July soybean oil was up 0.36 cents/lb.



Like we said at the top, there wasn't an abundance of new information provided to the ag markets to wrap up the week this week, with ongoing chatter surrounding 45Z and RVO's for 2025/2026 and beyond continuing be the main talking points. EPA head Lee Zeldin, who we talked about a bit yesterday, indicated in additional comments Thursday afternoon that one of the main objectives of his agency in the short term is to clear the backlog of 160 small-refinery exemptions (SRE's) that were left over from the Biden admin. Zeldin further added that the EPA was working to avoid a repeat of such a situation in the future, though it appears the Trump administration will likely again issue a significant number of SRE's, similar to what he did in his first term.



In the political world, President Trump's proposed tax bill hit its first roadblock on Friday, as it failed to pass the House Budget Committee. Five out of 21 Republican lawmakers voted against the legislation, saying they wanted to see additional cuts to Medicaid healthcare for lower income Americans and that they also wanted a full repeal of green energy tax cuts implemented during Biden's term. Said Chip Roy, a Republican from Texas, "We are writing checks we can't cash." As currently proposed, the bill would add trillions of dollars in federal debt to the government's budget, with a bipartisan Joint Tax Committee estimating the costs at more than $3.7 trillion over the next ten years. Sources familiar though say the setback is likely only temporary, with lawmakers hoping to reach an agreement with House Speaker Mike Johnson over the weekend on amendments.



Weather news heading into the weekend continues to be focused on the second of two major low-pressure systems that are working across the central US, as system number 1 spins through the northeastern US and then north into Canada tonight into tomorrow. Forecasts have then moved system number two up a bit in the week next week, with it now seen makings its way across the Midwest Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday next week, and providing rainfall of 2-5" for an area from Missouri/Iowa and then east into Tennessee/Kentucky and West Virginia. How this develops over the weekend will need to be closely monitored, with there being areas in the northern and north-central Corn Belt that are edging on the dry side and could use a drink. The CPC's week-two forecast trended wetter in the eastern Midwest at mid-day, but like we mentioned yesterday, the run-to-run differences have caused our confidence in any forecast beyond 5-7 days to fall significantly. Temperature-wise, the weekend will be cool across the northern Midwest, while the south stays above average. 5–10-day outlooks are then in good agreement on cooler air for the eastern half of the country through most of next week, before they then see warmth returning with ridging into the end of the month.



Checking in the global weather situation, China's forecast has improved in recent days, with the 5-day outlook showing cool/wet conditions through the bulk of its growing regions in the north, while areas further to the south will stay on the warm/dry side. Further to the west, the Russian wheat belt will see spotty precip over the next five days, but temperatures will be near average which should help limit stress. Continuing west, nearly all of Ukraine expects to see below average temps and above average precip in the same period, while the same hold true for most of eastern Europe. Western Europe stays drier, but does not see a lot of heat risk in the short term.


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Enjoy the night!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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