Monday, August 18, 2025
Closing Markets: Corn -0.75 old & +1.25 new.
Beans -1.25 old & new. Wheat -3.75.
TFG will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Tuesday, August 26th
Lincoln, IL at the Knights of Columbus – 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello, IL at the Monticello Community Building – 12 pm for Lunch!
Insight from Mr. Eric Snodgrass!
PLEASE RSVP BY TOMORROW!!!
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Corn and soybean markets were quietly mixed to start the week on Monday, as a morning rally mostly gave way to selling by the end of the session on Pro Farmer crop tour results that were mostly confirming the USDA's lofty crop projections, especially in the western part of the Midwest. Exact findings for a few states will be released later this evening and will be talked about tomorrow along with weekly crop condition ratings, but otherwise, it looks to be a lot of the same stories in the market this week as it was last week with everyone just curious what combines will find in terms of yields in another several weeks.
Corn Summary-
Corn futures saw mixed closes to start the week on Monday, with old crop ending the day lower and new crop finishing higher on what was an otherwise relatively quiet session. Talk surrounding the Pro Farmer crop tour dominated a lot of the market chatter and corroborated what the USDA printed last week, with scouts on the western leg finding yield potential that was at least 20% better than in the same fields last year and saying in comments that soil moisture levels were good. Like we mentioned above, eastern leg scouts didn't see quite as good of potential when compared last year in some cases, but in others found potential that was better than last year, which will make this evening's state level estimates interesting.
Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures closed marginally lower on Monday as spread activity in the product markets couldn't provide influence on the beans in either direction throughout the day. With President Trump's focus back on the Russia/Ukraine war this week and not on trade relationships or tariffs, the focus of the soybean trader has shifted back to supply for the time being, with focus Monday almost entirely on the host of private crop tours, including Pro Farmer, that kicked off either today or over the weekend. From a price standpoint, we see cash beans at $10 as a large hurdle in the short term due to the farmer being undersold and this being a psychologically friendly number to try and add some sales.
Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures saw a quietly lower start to the week on Monday as the global market was described as mostly routine and there wasn't a lot of new cash news to report from Asia or the Black Sea region. Futures markets in all three classes have a seasonal tendency to rally in another week or 2 through the month of September on the wrapping up of US harvest, but otherwise, the situation remains that the world has plenty of wheat and up-side price moves beyond bouts of short covering should continue to be labored.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $0.45+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Main weather feature for the short term forecast this week aside from Hurricane Erin in the Atlantic will be a passing cold front that looks to significantly cool temps across the central Is at mid-week, while also bringing scattered storm chances for parts of the northern Corn Belt. Highs will be well below average for most all the area by the end of the week and weekend.
Precip-wise, the EU model forecast through the end of the day on Friday sees up to 1.5" of rainfall possible for generally MN and WI, though exact coverage and amounts will be spotty/hard to predict.
Extended range forecasts coming out of the weekend have trended noticeably wetter in the western and west-central US into the end of the month, but still see mostly below average moisture chances through the Corn Belt, especially in the north and east.
10-15 day temperature outlooks are little changed from last week and continue to show well below average temperature for most all the US east of the Rockies into the end of the month.
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Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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